伊朗在周末遭受美国与以色列空袭，将过去一年以「可提供更快、更准实际事件讯号」为卖点的预测市场冲击到道德与法律边界，让其风险暴露得以具体化。该产业规模仍在扩张：Polymarket 由 Intercontinental Exchange Inc.（纽约证交所母公司）支持，估值约为 **9亿美元（US$9 billion）**，且多在境外运作、监管较少；Kalshi Inc. 受美国商品期货交易委员会监管，估值约 **110亿美元（US$11 billion）**，并与 Tradeweb Markets Inc. 签订合作，两者去年度合计成交量达**数十亿美元**。
当 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 在空袭中被报导死亡时，双平台即遭受即时反弹。Polymarket 的伊朗空袭时间合约成交量超过 **5.29亿美元（US$529 million）**，且区块链分析师指出新建帐户的投注型态出现可疑迹象；其「Khamenei 不再是最高领袖」合约最终以「是」收盘。Kalshi 的对应合约成交量超过 **5000万美元（US$50 million）**，并设有条款：若死亡发生，将以死亡前最后成交价结算而非二元赔付。周末资金快速涌入后，Kalshi 先澄清规则、暂停交易，并决定退还所有手续费与净损，直接成本约 **220万美元（US$2.2 million）**。
支持者认为这类市场可提供可交易、可用于避险的讯号，对中东油运路径、石油供应风险、全球油价与其他宏观决策具有先行性；Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 提及尼古拉斯·马杜罗在委内瑞拉权力变动中未死亡的案例作为先例。反对者则指出，战争与暗杀标的不同于选举或经济数据，激励结构更易滥用；以色列官方甚至出现首宗将机密情报与 Polymarket 投注行为连结的刑事指控。美国参议员 Adam Schiff 在距空袭不足一周前就致函 CFTC 主席 Michael Selig，要求在三月九日之前加强封锁；Chris Murphy 亦著手提出立法限制，而预测市场联盟曾声明「与死亡相关的合约不应出现在美国交易所」。事件在实务层面形成明显张力：规则与伦理仍不匹配，Kalshi 后续表示未来将更明确揭露死亡情境的条款。
The Iran strikes exposed limits of prediction markets that had spent the past year pitching themselves as a faster, cleaner way to aggregate real-world information. The industry keeps expanding: Polymarket, backed by Intercontinental Exchange Inc., is valued at about **US$9 billion**, and largely operates offshore with lighter U.S. oversight, while Kalshi Inc., regulated by the CFTC, is valued at about **US$11 billion** and has a deal with Tradeweb Markets Inc.; together they handled volume in the **tens of billions of dollars** last year.
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reported killed, both platforms drew immediate backlash. Polymarket’s Iran strike-timing contracts processed over **US$529 million** in volume, and analysts flagged suspicious patterns from newly created wallets; its “Khamenei is no longer supreme leader” market settled as “yes.” Kalshi’s comparable contract drew more than **US$50 million** and included a carveout: if death occurred, positions would settle at the last traded price instead of binary payout. After a weekend surge in flow, Kalshi posted clarifications, halted trading, and later reimbursed all fees and net losses, which reportedly cost about **US$2.2 million**.
Supporters still argue these contracts produce useful information and speed in hedging for oil logistics and Middle East supply risk beyond traditional analysis. Tarek Mansour says leadership-change markets affect oil prices, national security, and global order, citing Nicolás Maduro’s nonfatal transition in Venezuela. Critics counter that war and assassination markets create qualitatively different incentives; Israeli authorities also brought what appear to be the first criminal charges worldwide linking classified intelligence to Polymarket bets. In Congress, Adam Schiff pressed CFTC Chairman Michael Selig for crackdown deadlines, while Chris Murphy moved toward legislation, and the industry trade group acknowledged no death contracts should be on American exchanges—showing unresolved tension between market innovation and legal-ethical boundaries.