市场立即出现剧烈反应。霍尔木兹海峡每年承载约五分之一（20%）的全球海运石油和天然气贸易，现货运通道明显放缓，保险与船东抬高风险定价，部分航线停运。布伦特原油在今年已接近上涨20%，冲到约每桶77美元并创四年新高；分析人士警告若海峡完全关闭，油价可能逼近每桶108美元。沙特在一次无人机袭击后关闭了其大型炼厂，卡塔尔暂停世界最大LNG出口设施运行，也使欧洲天然气价格上涨超过50%；黄金与美元同步走强，美债因通胀预期加剧而走弱。
战略后果仍高度不确定。伊朗高层被打击后出现继任危机，但伊斯兰共和国并未出现立刻的全国性起义，特朗普声称不追求政权更迭，伊朗则称不会与美国谈判。世论支持度也有限：路透-益普索数据显示，只有1/4美国公众支持这次对Khamenei的打击，约一半民众——其中四分之一共和党人——认为特朗普动武过度。欧洲、印度、中国及海湾国家表达担忧并呼吁恢复对话；以色列又预示继续升级。分析人士警告，若冲突持续，伊朗失序可能引发难民外溢并拖长地区战争，在缺乏清晰后续安排下风险持续放大。
On March 2, 2026, Donald Trump further escalated U.S. intervention doctrine by openly targeting Iran’s top leadership, after U.S. forces weeks earlier seized Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. He ordered the operation that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with “scores” already dead and at least four U.S. troops among the casualties. Trump said the campaign targeted Iran’s missiles and navy, its nuclear pathway, and overseas terror financing, and said it could continue beyond the initially stated 4–5 weeks. The move signals a shift from indirect pressure to a highly visible “decapitation” strategy, with little disclosed planning for post-conflict governance or succession.
Markets reacted immediately and sharply. The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth (20%) of global seaborne oil and gas, and traffic slowed as insurers repriced risk and some carriers suspended voyages. Brent, already up nearly 20% this year, rose to around USD 77 per barrel at a four-year high; analysts said a full closure could push it near USD 108 per barrel. Saudi Arabia shut a major refinery after a drone strike, while Qatar pausing operations at the world’s largest LNG export facility lifted European gas prices by more than 50%; gold and the U.S. dollar strengthened and U.S. Treasuries weakened amid inflation concerns.
Strategic outcomes remain highly uncertain. Iran now faces a succession crisis after leadership losses, yet no immediate nationwide uprising is evident; Trump framed the operation as not aimed at immediate regime change, and Tehran said it would not negotiate. Public support is limited: a Reuters/Ipsos poll found only one in four Americans approved the Khamenei strike, while about half of Americans—including one in four Republicans—said Trump was too willing to use force. Europe, India, China, and Gulf states voiced concern and called for dialogue, while Israel signaled further escalation. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could trigger refugee spillover and a wider regional war, with risks magnified by the absence of a clear post-conflict plan. (Key numbers: 1/4)