过去九个月里，古巴的能源供应格局发生了剧变：这个长期依赖委内瑞拉供油的国家，如今所有的燃料都来自其头号宿敌美国。根据美国能源信息署（EIA）最新公布的数据，今年7月美国向古巴出口的燃料可能高达320万桶，且理论上全部流向了古巴私营部门而非过去垄断贸易的古巴政府。这一转变源于唐纳德·特朗普和古巴裔国务卿马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）2025年上台后对自1959年以来统治古巴的共产党政权采取的极限施压政策：今年1月，美军特种部队抓捕了委内瑞拉独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗并将其关押在纽约，随后迫使委内瑞拉停止向古巴供油，并通过关税威胁吓退了墨西哥等其他能源供应国。

美国的燃料封锁加剧了古巴的民生苦难，导致停电（apagones）成为常态、公共交通瘫痪、食品物资中断以及物价飞涨。面对危机，古巴政府自今年2月起允许私营企业进口燃料并租赁原国营加油站，美国也批准美方卖家向古巴非政府主体出口柴油、汽油和丙烷等轻质燃料（由于古巴私企无力炼油或运营发电厂，转售委内瑞拉原油的后续政策暂未落地）。尽管政府管理的电网依然瘫痪，但轻质燃料的涌入使古巴汽油价格降至每升2.50美元左右，比美国燃料涌入前下降了一半，加油站之间甚至出现了价格竞争。同时，自1993年将个体户合法化、2021年将小企业合法化以来，古巴政府今年又紧急通过了176项改革，并在10月12日通过法律鼓励私人资本参与整个石油行业，甚至可能将国有石油公司（Cupet）部分私有化。美国不仅是古巴最大的单一外国食品来源国，更在三年内从古巴第十大贸易伙伴跃升为第一大贸易伙伴，超越了西班牙和中国。

然而，这种燃料贸易究竟在多大程度上绕开了古巴政权仍存疑问。古巴国营油罐车仍在私人租赁的加油站加油，部分美国柴油可能流入了向电网供电的5.2万台政府所有的发电机中；更有哈瓦那居民警告称，新的燃料大亨主要是统治精英（cúpula）的子女，古巴恐面临从极权主义滑向寡头政治的风险。尽管如此，美国官员既能避免在距离佛罗里达海岸仅90英里（145公里）处发生人道主义灾难，又能培育佛罗里达州新一代古巴裔美国企业家。但华盛顿混乱的政策可能破坏现有成果：9月30日，特朗普政府冻结了古巴企业家使用的美国银行账户，反而打击了其燃料政策刚刚赋能的私营群体。

Over the past nine months, Cuba has shifted from relying on Venezuela for energy to getting all its fuel from the United States—reaching up to 3.2m barrels in July, according to the US Energy Information Administration—with supplies flowing to the Cuban private sector rather than the state monopoly. After taking office in 2025, Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio moved to squeeze Cuba’s communist regime, which has ruled since 1959: following the January capture and New York imprisonment of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro by US special forces, Washington halted Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and used tariff threats to deter Mexico.

After the blockade crippled transport, food distribution, and the state power grid, Cuba’s government began allowing private businesses to import fuel and lease state petrol stations in February, while Washington authorised exports of light fuels like diesel, petrol, and propane to private Cubans. Although grid blackouts persist because private firms cannot refine crude or run power stations, the influx of American fuel has halved local petrol prices to around $2.50 a litre and sparked competition among stations. Building on legalising freelance work in 1993 and small businesses in 2021, Havana hurriedly passed 176 reforms this year and enacted a law on October 12th opening the entire oil industry to private participation. Consequently, the US has risen from Cuba’s tenth-largest trading partner to its largest within three years, overtaking Spain and China while remaining its top foreign food supplier.

Still, critics question how completely the trade bypasses the regime, noting that state tankers refuel at leased stations, American diesel may feed the government’s 52,000 grid generators, and many new fuel barons are children of the ruling elite (cúpula), risking a shift from totalitarianism to oligarchy. While US officials welcome a policy that avoids a humanitarian crisis 90 miles (145km) off Florida’s coast and enriches Cuban-American entrepreneurs, Washington’s own muddled policymaking threatens this progress: on September 30th, the Trump administration moved to freeze American bank accounts used by the very Cuban entrepreneurs its fuel policies had empowered.

Source: Entrepreneurs in Cuba are snapping up American fuels

Subtitle: Donald Trump’s blockade of the island is starting to have curious effects

Dateline: Oct 15th 2026\n