在10月12日和13日夜间，数十枚俄罗斯导弹在几乎没有任何预警的情况下砸向基辅，本月俄军袭击已造成远超100名平民丧生；乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基在10月15日刊出的《金融时报》专访中指责美国切断了作为防空警报源头的卫星和信号情报。自唐纳德·特朗普于10月9日宣布允许俄罗斯出售柴油的交易以来，美国官员便威胁要切断情报共享，并私下警告可能终止欧洲国家出资购买美制武器援乌的“乌克兰优先需求清单”（PURL）机制，以此逼迫乌克兰停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂。尽管特朗普在10月13日坚称情报共享仍在继续，但乌方很快报告称，埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX限制了乌军攻击型无人机在俄占区使用的“星链”（Starlink）终端，使其在时速达到约160公里时失去连接（马斯克称美军控制着这些合同）；此外，为安抚特朗普，乌克兰曾暂停袭击俄能源目标三天，但俄军却在所谓的“能源停火”期间袭击了数十座乌克兰能源设施，促使泽连斯基宣布将恢复对俄炼油厂的打击。
美国的限制对乌克兰构成了沉重打击。乌军几乎所有的中程打击能力都依赖“星链”制导，而欧洲盟友也无法替代美国全天候监控俄军电子欺骗、干扰和部队调动的卫星、传感器及尖端人工智能数据分析工具——去年特朗普短暂阻止情报共享时，英国和法国甚至无法为其援乌巡航导弹提供制导。同时，若终止PURL机制将带来毁灭性后果，因为乌克兰95%的“爱国者”防空拦截弹以及F-16战斗机用于击落喷气式无人机的大量导弹均依赖该项目，尽管欧洲国家提供了一些“爱国者”拦截弹以及法意联合研制的SAMP/T防空系统，但仍远不足以保护关键基础设施。
尽管依赖美国看似迫使乌克兰必须放弃打击俄石油设施，但这一战术极具威力：《经济学人》今年夏季的分析显示，以全球油价计算，乌方袭击已使俄罗斯国家石油收入比预期减少了34%。此外，冲突监测机构“武装冲突地点与事件数据项目”（ACLED）的数据显示，乌军对俄罗斯腹地的打击中仅有21%针对石油相关设施，绝大多数针对的是数据中心、零售仓库以及支撑俄罗斯战争机器的军工企业——包括俄方预计今年将生产2.8万架喷气式攻击无人机的工厂。如果美国终止情报和武器合作，欧洲还要数年时间才能达到美国的导弹产能，乌克兰把战火烧向俄罗斯本土及防御导弹袭击的能力将被严重瘫痪。
On the nights of October 12th and 13th, dozens of Russian missiles struck Kyiv with little or no warning—part of a barrage that has killed well over 100 civilians this month—prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to accuse the United States on October 15th of cutting off vital satellite and signals intelligence. Following Donald Trump’s October 9th announcement of a Russian diesel deal, Washington demanded that Kyiv stop striking Russian oil refineries, threatening both intelligence sharing and the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), through which European nations buy American weapons for Ukraine. Although Mr Trump insisted on October 13th that intelligence sharing continued, SpaceX restricted Starlink terminals on Ukrainian attack drones so they lose connectivity at speeds around 160kph, and after Russia struck dozens of Ukrainian energy facilities during a three-day Ukrainian pause, Mr Zelensky announced that refinery strikes would resume.
These restrictions threaten to cripple Ukraine’s military capabilities. Ukrainian mid-range drone strikes in occupied territory rely heavily on Starlink, while Europe cannot replicate America’s 24/7 satellite surveillance, AI data-crunching tools, or targeting intelligence—as demonstrated last year when a brief US intelligence freeze left Britain and France unable to guide the cruise missiles they had supplied. Furthermore, ending PURL would devastate Ukrainian air defences, which rely on the programme for 95% of their Patriot interceptors and many of the missiles used by F-16 jets to shoot down jet-powered drones, far outweighing European supplies of Patriot missiles and Franco-Italian SAMP/T systems.
Forgoing refinery strikes is a painful concession for Kyiv, as such attacks force Russians to feel the war and helped slash Russian state oil revenues this summer to 34% below expectations based on global oil prices. Moreover, data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data show that only 21% of Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia target oil facilities, with the vast majority hitting data centres, warehouses, and military-industrial plants producing the 28,000 jet-powered attack drones Russia expects to build this year—missions that are nearly impossible to plan and execute without American intelligence.
Source: Donald Trump is squeezing Ukraine’s military lifeline
Subtitle: To protect his Russian diesel deal, he appears to be withholding vital military intelligence
Dateline: Oct 15th 2026\n