推升行情的关键不是更强的信心，而是害怕错过：S&P 500 自 3 月低点持续攀升、公司债利差逼近数十年低点，空头部位被迫回补。期权市场显示避险需求急速退潮，普通回档保护成本降至自 2025 年初以来最低，防范急跌崩盘的成本则降至今年最低；相较之下，半导体与大型 AI 受益股的看涨买盘极强，市场乐观集中于少数领涨标的。
不过，资金并非全面 All-in。Barclays 指出，避险基金与趋势追随基金已提高股票曝险，但 long-only 买盘转弱、散户参与仍低，现金仍大量停泊场外。更值得注意的是，在消费者信心走弱、收入增速下滑与 4 月新屋销售下降的背景下，市场保护被削减到偏低水位；Goldman Sachs 一篮子最被做空股票两个月内暴涨逾 30%，显示看空者承受显著痛苦。
This week’s market tone was defined by a sharp decline in caution rather than a surge in conviction. Even after a hot inflation print pushed the annual gauge to a roughly three-year high, plus fresh Persian Gulf strikes and expectations of tighter-for-longer Fed policy, stocks kept setting records, junk bonds rallied, Brent crude fell, and hedging costs dropped across asset classes. The S&P 500 rose 1.4% for the week, extending its gain to nine consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since 2023.
The clearest evidence was in options. Protection against an ordinary selloff fell to its lowest since early 2025, while crash insurance hit its lowest level this year. Demand for bullish calls stayed intense, especially in semiconductors and the $68 billion VanEck Semiconductor ETF, where Nomura said investors were paying unusually rich premiums for out-of-the-money calls; SpotGamma said 20 of the 25 largest Nasdaq names had call prices in the top tenth of their historical range, a level not seen since June 2024. Yet the move still looked more like catch-up than mania, with hedge funds and trend-followers adding exposure while long-only buying and retail participation remained subdued.
Underlying data were softer even as prices climbed: consumer confidence weakened, income growth slowed, and new-home sales fell in April. Investors seemed to be pricing a narrow set of outcomes—ceasefire, lower oil, and a broader rally—while staying wary of any renewed US-Iran fighting or a sharp oil rebound, as Michael O’Rourke noted. In short, the market is increasingly willing to pay less for downside insurance and more for upside participation, suggesting not full confidence in the outlook, but a costly reluctance to be left behind. (Key numbers: 4, 30)