数据也显示,远端工作更伤害需要大量监督与在职学习的入门职位,因为新手必须透过与资深同事一起工作来累积技能、知识与社会资本。远端模式增加了训练成本与管理摩擦,因而使雇用初阶员工的相对成本上升,但对资深员工的计算影响较小;这也解释了为何像律师等较少受 AI 影响、却适合远端的职业,也出现初阶招募疲弱,而像接待员等高 AI 暴露但偏线下工作的职位则相对更稳。
作者强调,这不代表 AI 无害,而是远端工作本身已成为一个被低估、且对经济与社会影响深远的结构性变化。其他研究指出,远端友善职业中的美国父亲增加了育儿时间,配偶的收入与就业率上升,且远端工作还能提高生育率;但研究也反复显示,对中年或资深员工有利的安排,往往会伤害最年轻者。这也呼应一个反直觉现象:最不支持完全远端、最希望同事多进办公室的,反而是 Gen Z。
Lambert and Schindler’s study argues that weak junior hiring may be driven less by AI than by the expansion of remote work. After analysing hundreds of millions of new hires and job postings, they found that junior hiring pullbacks correlate with both AI exposure and remote-work rates, but the AI link disappears once remote feasibility is controlled for. That means jobs such as software development, which are both highly remote and highly exposed to AI, can look like AI casualties when remote work is the more plausible explanation.
The data fit a mechanism in which remote work raises the cost of hiring entry-level workers, who need more supervision and learn by observing senior colleagues. Working from home adds friction to training, knowledge transfer and promotion, so firms face a worse trade-off when hiring juniors, while the calculus for senior hires changes far less. This helps explain why low-AI but remote-friendly roles such as lawyers also show weak junior hiring, whereas high-AI but in-person jobs such as receptionists have held up better.
The authors do not rule out AI as a threat, but argue that remote work is a major and under-discussed structural shift with wide economic and social effects. Other studies suggest remote-friendly jobs can increase fathers’ childcare time, lift spouses’ earnings and employment, and even boost fertility. Yet the same pattern recurs: arrangements that benefit mid- or late-career workers can hurt the youngest. That also explains a counterintuitive result—Gen Z is the least supportive of fully remote work and most likely to want colleagues back in the office.