世界气象组织(WMO)在3月23日宣布,地球气候已「比任何可观测历史时期更失衡」。这篇报导指出,长期增温趋势正与一股短期暖化力量叠加:预测中的秋季可能走强的 El Niño 可能将全球升温推向新高,并可能令2027年出现前所未见的高温。此前,美国西部与中部已在3月出现接近夏季的异常高温,显示已不只是孤立事件。预测者与科学家如 Zeke Hausfather 提出,若 El Niño 如预期发展,可能再创全球最暖年份纪录。
世界天气归因团队(World Weather Attribution)的分析认为,这次美国3月热浪若无人为气候变化,将「几乎不可能发生」;文中指出化石燃料致暖可能为观测温度再添数度摄氏(several degrees Celsius)。这种偏离季节常态的极端性在亚利桑那州 Flagstaff 被形容为北美近代史上最反常的事件之一。研究者 Daniel Swain 强调,这并非说本月一定比7月更热,而是其「偏离正常季节温度」幅度更大。至少14个州可能刷新3月历史最高温纪录。高温同时提高春夏秋野火风险,并加重干旱与西部积雪不足。
WMO进一步警告,燃烧化石燃料产生的温室气体持续累积,驱动大气与海洋变暖及冰层融化;这种「快速且大尺度」变化在短短几十年间发生,但冲击可能延续数百年至数千年。WMO 科学官 John Kennedy 解释,理想平衡下太阳入射能量与地球向外散失近似相当,但目前因CO2、CH4、N2O等温室气体增多,向外能量减少,导致地球系统能量「正累积」。报导亦指出2024年CO2为过去200万年最高,甲烷与氧化亚氮至少为过去80万年最高;2025年三种气体浓度仍在上升。联合国秘书长 Antonio Guterres 以「地球超出极限、各项关键气候指标全红灯」形容紧急局势。
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on March 23 that the climate is now more out of balance than at any time in observed history. The article says a long-term warming trend is colliding with a short-term boost: a potentially strong El Niño this autumn could amplify global temperatures and produce unprecedented heat into 2027. Meanwhile, a freakish March heat wave already pushed much of western and central United States to summer-like levels, suggesting this is not a standalone event. Experts such as Zeke Hausfather said that if El Niño evolves as forecast, it would likely make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded.
World Weather Attribution’s analysis argued that the U.S. March heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. Fossil-fuel warming reportedly added several degrees Celsius to observed values. In Flagstaff, Arizona, Daniel Swain described the event as one of the most singularly anomalous in modern North American history: not necessarily hotter than July heat waves, but a far greater departure from typical temperatures for that season. At least 14 states may have set all-time high March records. The heat wave also raises drought and snowpack concerns across the West and increases wildfire risk in spring, summer, and fall.
The WMO warned that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels continue to raise atmospheric and ocean heat while melting ice. In a balanced climate system, incoming solar energy roughly matches outgoing energy, but currently less energy leaves the system due to higher levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, so net energy is accumulating. This energy imbalance helped heat the oceans and accelerate ice-cap loss. Based on WMO-linked reporting, 2024 had the highest recorded CO2 level in the last 2 million years, with methane and nitrous oxide at peak levels in at least the last 800,000 years, and data show all three were still increasing in 2025. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called this a climate emergency and said all key climate indicators are flashing red.