霍尔木兹海峡几乎完全关闭，导致波斯湾内飞机用油及其原油来源难以外流，航空燃油价格自伊朗冲突后迅速攀升，文中以500节（575英里/小时）的喷气机与15节油轮形成对比，强调运输端阻塞的成本放大效应。各大航空公司普遍上调票价、加收燃油附加费并取消部分航线，受累航线包括欧洲汉莎与法荷航、美国联合与达美、以及东南亚Vietjet与AirAsia，Cirium统计4月下旬已出现面向5月减少13,000个航班计划，Spirit Airlines也在5月2日停飞。
尽管市场预期紧张，但高盛预计下半年夏季航班量较上年仍将增长3%至6%。按法国兴业银行（Société Générale）估算，2025年全球喷气燃油需求均值为每日电量780万桶，其中200万桶在国际市场交易，约36万桶/日经由霍尔木兹海峡，若5月亚洲炼厂因缺少波斯湾原油导致进一步缺口，可能再加80万桶/日，合计接近总需求的15%。
Aviation Advocacy咨询公司负责人Andrew Charlton称，航空公司最不愿率先减产的是因为必须持续售票维持现金流；地缘冲击在地区间分布并不均。美国虽整体受益于本土产油和炼油能力，但西海岸库存下滑明显，约五分之一供应依赖进口且85%来自受波斯湾供给扰动影响的韩国；欧洲年耗油约160万桶/日，三分之一依赖进口、且其中四分之三源自海湾，英国库存仅29天且无战略储备、葡萄牙仅23天（接近IEA认为需配给的线），“若霍尔木兹长期关闭，喷气燃油价格将进一步上升到抑制乘客出行并可能再有航空公司退出市场的水平”。
The near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz has largely blocked jet fuel and the crude behind it from exiting the Persian Gulf, and jet fuel prices have climbed rapidly since the Iran conflict started, with the 500-knot aircraft versus 15-knot tanker comparison underscoring how transport bottlenecks amplify cost pressure. Airlines have raised fares, added fuel surcharges, and dropped routes—examples include Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, United, Delta, Vietjet, and AirAsia—while Cirium said 13,000 May flights were removed from global schedules after late April, and Spirit Airlines stopped operating on May 2.
Despite this, Goldman Sachs expects summer schedules to rise 3%-6% year-on-year versus last year, yet the supply balance remains tight. Société Générale estimates 2025 global jet fuel demand at 7.8 million bpd, with 2 million bpd traded internationally and 360,000 bpd normally flowing through Hormuz, and flags a potential extra shortfall of 800,000 bpd in May, bringing the gap close to 15% of total demand.
Andrew Charlton of Aviation Advocacy says airlines are least likely to cut capacity first because they must keep ticket sales flowing for cash, and the shortage’s regional impact is uneven. The U.S. is buffered overall but vulnerable on the West Coast with lower inventories (about one-fifth of supply is imported, 85% from South Korea), Europe burns 1.6 million bpd with heavy Gulf dependence and uneven inventories (Britain 29 days, Portugal 23 days near IEA rationing trigger), while U.S. seaborne jet fuel exports rose by three-fifths to 280,000 bpd—110,000 bpd to Europe in March-April, with near-zero flows to Asia as prices there become less serviceable.
Source: Airlines are grappling with dwindling supplies of jet fuel
Subtitle: Yet it is unclear where shortages will hit first and hardest
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午