Microsoft Corp. 受到技术板块两大压力：投资者正在审视巨额人工智慧基础设施支出是否会带来更强劲的营收成长，而软体股也因担心 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 等 AI 公司可能让客户绕过 Microsoft 的产品而被抛售。Janus Henderson 的投资组合经理 Jonathan Cofsky 说，这可能冲击 Microsoft 的核心软体需求并压缩利润率。该股第一季已下跌约25%，接近其在2008年第四季下跌27%后最差的季度表现。至今它是 Magnificent Seven 中表现最弱者；该指数下跌14%，Microsoft 年初以来已下跌逾24%，周五又下滑1.7%，已连续第四个交易日下跌。
华尔街仍相信 Microsoft 的长期 AI 领先，但短期情绪取决于资本支出是否转化为持续增长。包含租赁在内的资本支出预计在财年2026年达1460亿美元（原文为$146 billion），比财年2025年的880亿美元（$88 billion）高约66%；共识预期财年2027年为1700亿美元（$170 billion）、2028年为1910亿美元（$191 billion）。投资者保持谨慎，因为 Azure 上季增长只出现轻微放缓，且 Copilot 虽已重组以改善服务但用户吸引力仍有限。Melius Research 的分析师 Ben Reitzes 说，Azure 的上行空间受限于 Microsoft 必须修补 Copilot 与其模型问题，且这不太可能在一季内解决。
估值方面，Microsoft 以低于20倍的12个月预估市盈率交易，是2016年6月以来最低；也低于 S&P 500 的估值，且自2015年以来首次以折价交易于大盘。根据 Bloomberg 跟踪的67位分析师，63位为买入、3位持有、1位卖出；平均12个月目标价为592美元，意味著未来一年有超过64%上涨空间，为Bloomberg自2009年资料以来最高隐含报酬。该股也以最宽差距跌破200日均线。Bank of America 的 Tal Liani 复苏覆核后仍维持买入，认为云端与 AI 增长具持久性；Ben Reitzes 则指出生产力和业务流程及 More Personal Computing 仍有风险。此争论在于现况风险是预警还是耐心投资者可把握的买入机会，Allspring Global Investments 的 Jake Seltz 认为其长期价值仍在。
Microsoft Corp. is pressured by two tech-sector trends: investors are scrutinizing whether massive AI infrastructure spending will produce stronger revenue growth, and software stocks are being sold off over fears that AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI could let customers bypass Microsoft’s products. Janus Henderson portfolio manager Jonathan Cofsky said this could hit Microsoft’s core software demand and squeeze margins. The stock is down about 25% in Q1, close to its worst quarterly performance since a 27% decline in 4Q2008. So far it is the weakest among the Magnificent Seven; the index is down 14%, and Microsoft is off more than 24% year-to-date, with another 1.7% drop on Friday for a fourth straight losing session.
Wall Street still believes Microsoft has a long-term AI edge, but short-term sentiment depends on whether capex spending translates into durable growth. Capital expenditure, including leases, is projected at $146 billion in fiscal 2026, about 66% above fiscal 2025’s $88 billion, and consensus expects $170 billion in fiscal 2027 and $191 billion in 2028. Investors are cautious as Azure showed only slight growth deceleration last quarter, while Copilot still has limited user traction despite reorganizations to improve it. Ben Reitzes of Melius Research said Azure upside is constrained because Microsoft must fix Copilot and model issues, and this is unlikely to be resolved in one quarter.
On valuation, Microsoft trades at less than 20 times forward earnings, the lowest in 12 months since June 2016; it is also below the S&P 500 multiple and first at a broad-market discount since 2015. Bloomberg’s 67 analysts include 63 buy, 3 hold, and 1 sell ratings. The average 12-month target is $592, implying over 64% upside, the highest implied return in Bloomberg’s history since 2009. The stock is also below its 200-day moving average by the widest margin on record. Bank of America’s Tal Liani reinstated coverage with a buy rating, arguing cloud and AI growth is durable. Ben Reitzes flags risks in productivity and business-processes and More Personal Computing; the debate is whether current weakness is a warning or a buying opportunity for patient investors, while Allspring’s Jake Seltz says the long-term value remains.