欧洲安全负责人警告，欧洲正处于“和平与战争之间的空间”，并可能在2030年前后与俄罗斯发生冲突，因而要求全社会进入准备状态；11月以及12月11日和12月15日的相关表态，在部分西欧国家引发怀疑与反弹。
各国正通过服役或预备役重建兵力：德国将从2026年起向所有18岁青年发放意愿问卷，并从2027年起让18岁男性参加体检以建立可动员数据库；法国将在2026年为18—25岁人群启动为期10个月的带薪自愿兵役（义务兵役于1997年取消）；瑞典的2018年“总体防卫”模式要求所有18岁男女登记，并仅征召其中一小部分服役11个月。
民防准备由北欧与波罗的海国家领跑：瑞典在2024年向每户邮寄32页指南，覆盖16—70岁人群，并计划将民防支出在2028年提高到1940亿瑞典克朗，而2022年为270亿；立陶宛的指南则以“三天”生存清单为目标。12月发布的九国民调显示风险感知差距显著（77%的波兰人对比34%的意大利人认为未来几年与俄罗斯开战的风险“很高”），但对防卫能力普遍悲观（平均69%认为本国无法自卫；意大利85%、德国69%、波兰58%、法国51%）。
In the Nordic and Baltic regions, civil preparedness is taking the lead. Sweden has circulated a comprehensive 32-page guide for 2024 covering ages 16 to 70 and plans to increase civil-defense spending to SKr19.4 billion in 2028, up from SKr2.7 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, Lithuania's guidelines emphasize having three days’ worth of survival supplies. A poll conducted in December across nine countries reveals significant perception gaps—77% of Poles see a high war risk compared to only 34% of Italians. However, there's general pessimism regarding readiness; on average, 69% believe their country couldn't defend itself, with notable figures including 85% of Italians, 69% of Germans, 58% of Poles, and 51% of French respondents.
European security chiefs warn the region is in a “space between peace and war” and may face Russia by 2030, urging society-wide readiness; statements in November and on Dec 11 and Dec 15 met skepticism and backlash in parts of Western Europe.
Governments are rebuilding manpower through service or reserves: Germany will questionnaire all 18-year-olds from 2026 and medically examine 18-year-old men from 2027 to create a mobilization database; France starts 10 months of paid voluntary service for ages 18–25 in 2026 (conscription ended in 1997); Sweden’s 2018 “total defence” model registers all 18-year-olds and drafts a small share for 11 months.
Source: Europe’s generals are warning people to prepare for war
Subtitle: But western European societies are in denial
Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 05:49 上午 | BERLIN, PARIS AND WARSAW