乌克兰因泄露的28点投降方案而面临的最高外交险境暂时缓和，因为美国和欧洲官员介入弱化其中最具破坏性的条款。华盛顿已放弃感恩节最后期限和据称要切断情报与武器的威胁，而泽连斯基及其欧洲盟友在谈判中争取到一些让步，即使俄罗斯对每一步通向更安全协议的举动都提出异议。

战争的终局仍然危险：乌克兰的成功被界定为成为繁荣、亲西方的民主国家，但繁荣、西方一体化和健康政治这三大要素都在承压。只要俄罗斯再度进攻的可能性存在，资本和人口就不会回流，而美国强加的不公和平加上围绕日益集权的泽连斯基政府爆发的大型腐败丑闻，正在侵蚀国内和欧洲的信任。

俄罗斯为每一米乌克兰土地付出高昂代价，其经济虽仍能支撑战争，却在资金趋紧的压力下前行，因为原油价格在2023–24年平均略高于每桶80美元，却被预测明年跌至50多美元、到2027年底跌入30多美元区间。 在这场消耗战中，乌克兰缺乏兵员和武器，而经济规模约为俄罗斯十倍的欧洲仍无法就大胆资金方案达成一致，例如最近未能通过没收1400亿欧元（1600亿美元）俄方资产的计划，从而冒着援助来得太晚、无法挽救乌克兰的风险。

Ukraine’s immediate diplomatic peril has eased after backlash to a leaked 28-point surrender plan, as US and European officials step in to dilute its most damaging terms. Washington has already dropped a Thanksgiving deadline and a reported threat to cut intelligence and weapons, while Zelensky and European allies extract concessions even as Russia objects to each move toward a more secure settlement.

The war’s endgame remains precarious: Ukraine’s success is defined as becoming a thriving, Western-leaning democracy, yet all three elements—prosperity, Western integration, and healthy politics—are under strain. If renewed Russian attack remains likely, capital and people will stay away, while an imposed, unjust peace and a major corruption scandal surrounding the increasingly centralized Zelensky government erode trust at home and in Europe.

Russia is paying a heavy cost for every metre of Ukrainian territory, and its economy, though able to sustain war, faces tightening finances as oil prices, which averaged just above $80 a barrel in 2023–24, are forecast to fall into the $50s next year and the $30s by late 2027. In this grinding war of attrition, Ukraine lacks men and weapons while Europe—with an economy roughly ten times Russia’s—still cannot agree on bold funding such as the failed attempt to seize €140bn ($160bn) in Russian assets, risking help arriving too late.