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特斯拉在去年的销量下滑后失去全球电动车龙头地位,落后中国比亚迪,但公司正把重心转向电网级大型电池。中国已生产约全球 75% 的锂离子电池,且制造成本逐年下降,这让其中国竞争者在电动车供应链上迅速领先。下一场关键竞争是电网用储能系统:随著太阳能与风电扩张,电池需要在发电过剩时存电并协助维持电网频率稳定。

原本以车用高毛利为主、相对小众的电池业务,正转变为公用事业与资料中心的核心基础设施。中国企业(宁德时代、比亚迪、亿纬锂能)与系统整合商(阳光电源、华为)因此受益并扩大市占:宁德时代在全球市占接近 40%。在欧洲,中国企业于 2024 年的市占年增约三分之二,而阳光电源的份额更是翻倍以上至 21%。

美国是例外:尽管中国对手在价格上更具优势,特斯拉仍以 39% 的市占领先,原因在于其将硬体、软体、电网整合与长期服务打包为一体。对电网营运商而言——作为寿命约 20 年的关键基础设施——保固、责任归属与整合能力往往比电芯成本的些微差距更重要。欧洲未来也可能因类似因素收紧;同时中国厂商技术进步迅速,但电网储能市场的走向可能不同于电动车市场。

Tesla lost the top EV-maker spot to BYD after a sales decline last year, but it is pivoting toward grid-scale batteries. China already makes about 75% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, and its producers cut costs yearly, which helped them dominate EV supply. The next contest is energy storage systems for electricity grids as solar and wind grow and require buffering and frequency control.

What was once a niche, vehicle-margin-driven business is becoming core infrastructure for utilities and data centres. Chinese firms (CATL, BYD, Eve Energy) and integrators (Sungrow, Huawei) have gained share: CATL holds nearly 40% globally. In Europe, Chinese groups’ share rose about two-thirds year on year in 2024, and Sungrow more than doubled its slice to 21%.

The US is the outlier: despite Chinese pricing advantages, Tesla leads with a 39% share, helped by bundling hardware, software, grid integration and long-term service. For grid operators—critical assets with roughly 20-year lifespans—warranties, accountability and integration often outweigh small cell-cost differences. Europe may tighten for similar reasons, while Chinese players improve quickly; still, the grid battery market could diverge from the EV market.

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2026-01-03 (Saturday) · 206451d92516f17d5a9e444354af8e21775a1871