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花旗集团策略师 Scott Chronert 指出,「七巨头」(Magnificent Seven)这个名词在评估美国大型成长股或人工智慧(AI)交易时已不再适用。投资人应将焦点转向由大型科技股和 AI 基础设施相关企业组成的「成长聚落」(growth cluster),这些企业合计占标普 500 指数市值一半以上,并贡献了近 48% 的获利。

此观点的背后原因是美股正在发生的类股轮动。彭博七巨头指数在 2026 年表现落后,且这七档股票的股价相关性已经瓦解。例如微软和 Meta 因市场对其庞大 AI 资本支出的回报感到怀疑而下跌,苹果则因未参与资料中心军备竞赛而大涨 23%。

Chronert 强调,「成长聚落」的估值在历史上仍具吸引力,其 12 个月远期本益比相对于过去 30 年位于第 66 百分位数,且至 2027 年都有强劲的获利预期支撑。因此,与其使用「七巨头对比指数其余成分股」的方式,不如以「成长聚落」来更好地代表标普 500 的基本面与价格表现。



Citigroup Inc. strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that the term "Magnificent Seven" is no longer relevant when assessing US large-cap growth stocks or artificial intelligence (AI) trades. Investors should shift their focus to a "growth cluster" consisting of large technology stocks and AI infrastructure-related companies, which together account for more than half of the S&P 500's market capitalization and contribute nearly 48% of its earnings.

The rationale behind this view is the sector rotation currently taking place in US stocks. The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index has underperformed in 2026, and the price correlation among these seven stocks has broken down. For instance, Microsoft and Meta declined due to market skepticism regarding the payoff from their massive AI capital expenditures, while Apple surged 23% on relief that it did not participate in the data center arms race.

Chronert emphasized that the valuations of the "growth cluster" remain historically attractive. Its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is in the 66th percentile relative to the past 30 years, supported by strong earnings expectations through 2027. Therefore, rather than using a "Mag 7 versus rest-of-index" approach, the "growth cluster" serves as a better representation of the S&P 500's fundamentals and price performance.
2026-07-21 (Tuesday) · 3fc9b1e3769647000cbe1166dc3bf462051dd981