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花旗集團策略師 Scott Chronert 指出,「七巨頭」(Magnificent Seven)這個名詞在評估美國大型成長股或人工智慧(AI)交易時已不再適用。投資人應將焦點轉向由大型科技股和 AI 基礎設施相關企業組成的「成長聚落」(growth cluster),這些企業合計佔標普 500 指數市值一半以上,並貢獻了近 48% 的獲利。

此觀點的背後原因是美股正在發生的類股輪動。彭博七巨頭指數在 2026 年表現落後,且這七檔股票的股價相關性已經瓦解。例如微軟和 Meta 因市場對其龐大 AI 資本支出的回報感到懷疑而下跌,蘋果則因未參與資料中心軍備競賽而大漲 23%。

Chronert 強調,「成長聚落」的估值在歷史上仍具吸引力,其 12 個月遠期本益比相對於過去 30 年位於第 66 百分位數,且至 2027 年都有強勁的獲利預期支撐。因此,與其使用「七巨頭對比指數其餘成分股」的方式,不如以「成長聚落」來更好地代表標普 500 的基本面與價格表現。



Citigroup Inc. strategist Scott Chronert pointed out that the term "Magnificent Seven" is no longer relevant when assessing US large-cap growth stocks or artificial intelligence (AI) trades. Investors should shift their focus to a "growth cluster" consisting of large technology stocks and AI infrastructure-related companies, which together account for more than half of the S&P 500's market capitalization and contribute nearly 48% of its earnings.

The rationale behind this view is the sector rotation currently taking place in US stocks. The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index has underperformed in 2026, and the price correlation among these seven stocks has broken down. For instance, Microsoft and Meta declined due to market skepticism regarding the payoff from their massive AI capital expenditures, while Apple surged 23% on relief that it did not participate in the data center arms race.

Chronert emphasized that the valuations of the "growth cluster" remain historically attractive. Its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is in the 66th percentile relative to the past 30 years, supported by strong earnings expectations through 2027. Therefore, rather than using a "Mag 7 versus rest-of-index" approach, the "growth cluster" serves as a better representation of the S&P 500's fundamentals and price performance.
2026-07-21 (Tuesday) · 3fc9b1e3769647000cbe1166dc3bf462051dd981