全球私募股权在 2021 年后因融资成本与通膨上升而降温，但估值差距与退出改善正带动复苏。StepStone 指出全球私募股权 AUM 约 9 兆美元，且「首次」出现逾 50% 的被投公司持有期超过 5 年，形成推动出售与交易回升的压力；利率下行也被视为重启交易的重要利多。
亚洲方面，日本被视为近年最热市场之一，且偏向传统杠杆收购；机构更倾向中小型交易以取得较佳入场估值。东京证交所改革促使上市公司提升资本效率、处分非核心资产与促进私有化，形成日本收购顺风。Preqin 指出机构对另类资产配置由 2020 年 15.7% 升至 2024 年近 20%，且逾 80% 日本投资人打算维持或提高配置；但 Morgan Stanley 亦提醒，亚洲市场分化与监管变动使募资未见明显上行，更多仍是「观望」而非落槌。
Private-market experts expect an easier deal backdrop into 2026 as rate cuts and a global equity upswing (AI-led gains and more IPOs) improve exit options and recycling of capital into private equity. Ocorian estimates global private assets in funds rose about 10% this year to above $14T, and forecasts nearly $24T within five years, with private equity almost doubling to $17.4T.
After a 2021 peak, private-equity activity weakened amid higher financing costs, inflation, geopolitical risk, buyer–seller valuation gaps, and delayed exits. Momentum is returning as public and private valuations realign and exits reopen: StepStone notes global PE AUM around $9T and says over 50% of PE-backed companies are now held longer than five years, creating pressure to sell and catalyzing renewed deal flow alongside falling-rate expectations.
In Asia, Japan is highlighted as a leading buyout market, supported by Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms that push capital-efficiency improvements and encourage sales of non-core assets or going private. Preqin data show institutional allocations to alternatives rising from 15.7% (2020) to nearly 20% (2024), and surveys indicate over 80% of Japanese investors intend to maintain or increase private-market exposure. Still, Morgan Stanley cautions Asia’s country-by-country dynamics and regulatory shifts keep fundraising gains muted—more “window shopping” than commitments.
