人民币今年早些时候走弱，背景是美国4月推出“对等”关税；但在特朗普迅速收回将对华关税上调至100%以上的计划后反转。10月下旬，特朗普与习近平在韩国会晤并达成一年的贸易休战，进一步缓和紧张。利差也在收窄：美联储今年已第三次降息，而人民银行自5月下调0.1个百分点后一直按兵不动。
人民银行12月18日的季度会议纪要强调继续实施“适度宽松”的货币政策并加大逆周期、跨周期调节，一些经济学家因此下调了对明年激进宽松的预期。BNY香港策略师Wee Khoon Chong称外资回流、尤其是流入股市，以及人民币实际有效汇率估值具吸引力，认为短期可能向6.8区间靠拢。不过升值幅度仍有限，难以消除外界对中国巨额贸易顺差的担忧；IMF指出相对低通胀导致实际汇率显著贬值，使出口更便宜并加深对出口的依赖。
PBOC fixed the onshore yuan midpoint at 7.0358 per dollar on Friday, its strongest since September 2024, with the onshore rate allowed to trade within a ±2% band. Spot yuan traded firmer than the fix near 7.01, approaching the key 7.00 threshold; a break would be the first since May 2023. The offshore yuan briefly dipped below 7.00 on Thursday, first since September 2024, then moved back above 7.00.
Earlier weakness followed U.S. 'reciprocal' tariffs announced in April, but the yuan rebounded after President Donald Trump backed off plans to lift China tariffs above 100% and after a late-October Xi–Trump meeting in South Korea produced a one‑year trade truce. Monetary-policy divergence also narrowed: the Fed cut rates for the third time this year, while the PBOC has held steady since a 0.1 percentage point cut in May.
In a Dec. 18 quarterly meeting readout, the PBOC reiterated a 'moderately loose' stance and more countercyclical adjustments, as some economists shifted from expecting aggressive easing. BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong cited returning foreign equity inflows and attractive real-effective valuation, saying a move toward the 6.8 zone is plausible. Still, gains are modest and may not calm scrutiny of China’s large surplus; the IMF warned low inflation has driven real depreciation and reinforced export reliance.
