中国的天然气危机早于2026年全球天然气价格冲击。全球市场的冲击在2月28日开始，当时美国和以色列对伊朗的打击威胁到约五分之一的全球液化天然气供应，使欧洲天然气价格在数小时内上涨近50%。然而在中国北方，危机在数月前就已显现：寒冷冬季与上涨的燃料价格使农村家庭难以承担供暖费用。自2017年以来，河北等地区为减少空气污染限制家庭燃煤，推动居民改用燃气锅炉、电暖器或热泵，但随着补贴逐渐取消，许多低收入家庭在零下气温中仍难以负担取暖成本。

不同供暖技术在成本结构上差异显著。安装成本方面，热泵和燃气锅炉最高，电暖器较低，而继续使用柴火或非法煤炭几乎无需安装成本。运行成本则相反：热泵最低。产生约100万英热单位的热量（足以为小型住宅供暖约两天），使用热泵约需5美元电费，煤炭约10美元，天然气约15美元。尽管热泵安装成本仅比燃气锅炉高约20%，地方政府在需要为数百万设备提供补贴时仍倾向选择天然气方案，从而将长期运营成本转嫁给居民。

这一政策结构揭示了能源转型中的经济分配问题。中国改善城市空气质量的政策在很大程度上将成本转移给农村政府和居民。类似问题在其他地区也出现：在欧洲和英国，俄乌战争后最初的热泵安装潮已放缓，因为监管结构使燃气锅炉运行成本看起来更低。政策制定者将天然气视为从煤炭到可再生能源的“过渡燃料”，但这种策略在价格波动和地缘政治冲突下显得脆弱，并可能提高个人能源负担并削弱公众对能源转型的支持。

China’s natural gas crisis emerged earlier than the global gas shock of 2026. The international disruption began on February 28 when US and Israeli strikes against Iran threatened roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas supplies, pushing European gas prices up nearly 50% within hours. In northern China, however, the crisis had already appeared months earlier as harsh winter weather and rising fuel prices left rural households struggling to afford heating. Since 2017, provinces such as Hebei have restricted coal burning to reduce air pollution and encouraged households to switch to gas boilers, electric heaters, or heat pumps. As subsidies were gradually removed, many low-income residents could no longer afford heating in sub-zero temperatures.

Heating technologies differ significantly in cost structure. Installation costs are highest for heat pumps and gas boilers, lower for electric heaters, and essentially zero for households using firewood or illegal coal in existing stoves. Operating costs show the opposite pattern, with heat pumps the cheapest. Producing roughly one million British thermal units of heat—enough to warm a small home for about two days—costs around $5 using a heat pump, compared with about $10 using coal and $15 using natural gas. Although heat pump installation costs are only about 20% higher than gas boilers, local governments responsible for subsidizing millions of units often chose gas systems, shifting higher long-term operating costs to households.

This policy structure highlights distributional challenges in energy transitions. China’s clean-air policies improved urban environments but placed substantial financial burdens on rural governments and residents. Similar dynamics are visible elsewhere: in Europe and the United Kingdom, an initial surge in heat-pump installations after the Ukraine war reduced Russian gas supplies has stalled partly because regulations make gas boilers cheaper to operate. Policymakers have treated gas as a “bridge fuel” between coal and renewables, yet price volatility and geopolitical shocks expose the fragility of that strategy, increasing household energy costs and undermining support for clean-energy transitions.