德黑兰外长 Abbas Araghchi 在与美国就会谈地点和受邀名单讨价还价时，基本上如愿以偿；他表示，美国已接受伊朗要求其保留部分铀浓缩能力。Trump 正在集结自 2003 年入侵 Iraq 以来美国在该地区最大的兵力：一艘航空母舰已就位，第二艘正在途中。Trump 说他希望在 3 月初前达成协议，否则就会有「坏事发生」。
美国官员质疑伊朗的紧迫性，Steve Witkoff 表示 Donald Trump「好奇为何他们在压力和美国海上与海军力量之下还没有……屈服」。伊朗也知道，Trump 在 1 月发出的最后通牒曾称若伊斯兰共和国持续杀害抗议者就会打击它，但这一说法已不了了之，尽管伊朗安全部队枪杀了数千名示威者。德黑兰领导层也可参照去年夏天与 Israel 的 12-day 战争，在美国介入加持下，以及国家叙事所称伊朗的弹道飞弹齐射迫使更强大的力量接受停火。
伊朗数十年来一直在打磨不对称作战，包括支持 Hezbollah 和 Hamas，并生产廉价无人机，以压垮更先进或更昂贵的防御体系。在 Washington 和 Tel Aviv，官员很可能会倚赖 Israel 的拦截飞弹，其单枚成本高达 $3 million。2 月 17 日，伊斯兰革命卫队宣布关闭 Hormuz 海峡「部分」区域；这次封闭是暂时的，实际影响很小，但它释放出讯号：伊朗可以在全球最大产油地区出口的重要通道上，威胁更长时间的中断。
Abbas Araghchi, Tehran’s foreign minister, largely got his way when haggling over the location for talks with the US and who would be invited, and he says the US has accepted Iran’s demand that it keep some uranium enrichment capacity. Trump is amassing the biggest US force to assemble in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq: one aircraft carrier is already in place and a second is on its way. Trump has said he wants a deal by early March or else “bad things happen.”
US officials have questioned Iran’s urgency, with Steve Witkoff saying Donald Trump was “curious as to why they haven’t ... capitulated” under pressure and US sea and naval power. Iran also knows Trump’s January ultimatum that he would strike the Islamic Republic if it continued killing protesters came and went, even though Iranian security forces gunned down thousands of demonstrators. Tehran’s leadership can look to last summer’s 12-day war with Israel, bolstered by a US intervention, and the state narrative that Iran’s ballistic missile salvos pressured superior powers into a ceasefire.
Iran has spent decades honing asymmetric warfare, including backing Hezbollah and Hamas and producing cheap drones to overwhelm more sophisticated or expensive defenses. In Washington and Tel Aviv, officials will likely be counting on Israel’s interceptor missiles, which cost as much as $3 million each. On Feb. 17, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it was closing “parts” of the Strait of Hormuz; the closure was temporary and had little practical effect, but it signaled that Iran could threaten longer disruption in a key outlet for exports from the world’s top oil-producing region.