在14亿人口中，约3亿人吸烟，且几乎一半的成年男性吸烟，而女性不到2%。他们合计消费全球40%的烟草，但据世卫组织数据，自2000年以来中国烟草消费仅下降4%，而全球下降13%。

这种规模支撑了国有的中国烟草总公司（CNTC），其在2023年生产约2.4万亿支香烟；与富裕国家相比，最便宜的20支装通常仅售15元（2美元）。代价同样巨大：每年多达260万中国人因吸烟相关疾病过早死亡（约相当于芝加哥人口），占全部年度死亡的23%，而美国可比比例为10%，《烟草地图集》估计医疗与生产力损失每年约3000亿美元。

政策方面，2015年中国将烟草广告禁令扩大到广告牌和公共交通，随后在2016年推出“健康中国2030”，要求到2030年将吸烟者占比降至成年人的20%以下（该比例已从2015年的24.4%降至如今的22.9%）。但烟草税自2000年以来几乎占中央财政收入的7%，加税会触及税基；2015年提税时CNTC通过压缩利润缓冲涨价，而定价由烟草监管机构掌控且其负责人同时兼任CNTC掌门、两机构共用办公地点，叠加约250个城市禁烟执行不一与收入增长快于提价，使香烟更可负担。

In a population of 1.4bn, about 300m people smoke, with nearly half of adult men smoking versus just under 2% of women. Together they consume 40% of the world’s tobacco, yet WHO data show China’s tobacco consumption has fallen only 4% since 2000 compared with a 13% global decline.

That scale benefits the state-owned China National Tobacco Corporation (CNTC), which produced about 2.4trn cigarettes in 2023; relative to rich-world prices, the cheapest pack of 20 typically costs 15 yuan ($2). The toll is likewise huge: up to 2.6m Chinese die early each year from smoking-related illness (roughly Chicago’s population), accounting for 23% of annual deaths versus 10% in America, and the Tobacco Atlas puts annual treatment and productivity losses at about $300bn.

On policy, China expanded tobacco-ad bans in 2015 to billboards and public transport, then launched “Healthy China 2030” in 2016 calling for smokers to fall below 20% of adults by 2030 (down from 24.4% in 2015 to 22.9% today). But tobacco taxes have provided almost 7% of central-government revenue since 2000, making higher excise politically costly; in 2015 CNTC cut margins to blunt intended price rises, pricing is overseen by a regulator led by CNTC’s boss in a shared office, and with patchy enforcement across roughly 250 city bans plus incomes rising faster than prices, cigarettes have become more affordable.

Source: Why do so many Chinese still smoke?

Subtitle: One reason: China’s tobacco industry has massive clout

Dateline: 12月 11, 2025 06:01 上午