英国不同地区对移民的态度差异显著。2021年至2024年，英格兰白人英国人占比从74%降至72%，各主要少数族裔群体均扩大。但变化速度不一：塔姆沃思非白人英国人比例从12%升至15%，增幅约20%；伯明翰的小希思几乎未变。基于2004—2024年的学龄人口推算，英格兰多数族裔选区（白人英国人不足半数）从2021年的69个增至2024年的77个。
我们在约7,000个、平均人口约8,000的小区域上衡量“多样性”和“隔离度”。2021—2024年，543个选区中除17个外均更为多样；此前同质性高的地区变化最大。与此同时，少数族裔的地理扩散并未必然降低隔离：小区域数据显示，同期略多于半数选区的族裔隔离度上升。移民定居模式也在变化，越来越多移居郊区和小城镇，使城市对全国多样性增量的贡献较2000年代末几乎减半。
将人口变化与英国选举研究的态度数据对照发现，近期多样化最快的选区，反移民情绪上升也最明显。城市居民态度略趋强硬，郊区与乡村更甚。族群构成亦重要：南亚人口基数低的地区态度转负更明显；混血人口增长则显著缓和态度。改革英国党支持者对移民转冷最剧烈；按模型推算，其可能赢得的318个选区中，有143个位于英格兰隔离度最高的前200名。总体而言，英国的同化能力仍强，但地方层面的变化速度与隔离格局，正在塑造分化的公众反应。
Attitudes to immigration vary sharply across Britain. From 2021 to 2024, the share of white British people in England fell from 74% to 72%, while every large minority group grew. The pace differs by place: in Tamworth the non-white-British share rose from 12% to 15%, a 20% increase, whereas Small Heath barely changed. Using school-pupil data to estimate populations from 2004–24, the number of majority-minority constituencies rose from 69 in 2021 to 77 in 2024.
We assess about 7,000 small areas (averaging roughly 8,000 residents) on diversity and segregation. Between 2021 and 2024, all but 17 of England’s 543 constituencies became more diverse, with the biggest shifts in previously homogeneous places. Yet dispersion has not uniformly reduced segregation: small-area estimates show a slight majority of constituencies became more segregated over the same period. Settlement patterns are changing too, with more migrants moving to suburbs and small towns; cities’ contribution to the national rise in diversity is now nearly half what it was in the late 2000s.
Linking population change to attitudes from the British Election Study reveals a pattern: constituencies that diversified fastest saw the greatest hardening of views. City dwellers became slightly more hostile, suburban and rural residents more so. Composition matters: places with low initial south-Asian populations saw more negative shifts, while growth in mixed-race populations markedly warmed attitudes. Supporters of Reform UK soured most; of the 318 seats the party is projected to win, 143 lie among the 200 most segregated constituencies. Britain assimilates well overall, but neighbourhood-level change shapes divergent reactions.
