在严寒加剧之际，俄罗斯空袭正将基辅推向人道主义危机。1月16日，当局放宽夜间宵禁以便民众取暖；此前1月19日夜袭导致约100万用户断电，数千户失去集中供暖，气温降至-20°C。俄罗斯集中打击民用能源设施，尤其是将国家高压电转为城市低压电的变电站，意在把首都与国家电网分离。市长称已有约60万人离开；若本地热电厂再遭破坏，供水系统也可能瘫痪，最坏情况下需放空管道至春季以防冻裂。
防空形势同样吃紧。规划者面临“四重夹击”：电力短缺、防空导弹不足、异常低温以及俄军打击精度提升。俄方主力武器为“沙赫德”无人机，日产数百架；典型战术是先以导弹破顶，再由数十架无人机蜂拥而入。拦截弹短缺由来已久，而数量压力更甚：过去一年，乌克兰无人机拦截率已从98%降至80%。在1月19日袭击后，总统泽连斯基推迟达沃斯行程并启动空军指挥改革。
最引人注目的人事调整是任命前线无人机指挥官帕夫洛·“拉扎尔”·叶利扎罗夫上校为空防助理指挥官。他率领的秘密部队据称已摧毁价值逾120亿美元的俄军装备，现有约1,500名操作员，在前线每10公里部署侦察、夜轰与拦截无人机单元。该系统多在基辅地下掩体远程操控，人员几乎都在35岁以下。其“标准化体系”理念旨在以国产拦截器与新战法遏制蜂群攻击；成败将决定基辅是否在寒冬中被切断能源。
As cold intensifies, Russian air assaults are pushing Kyiv toward a humanitarian crisis. On January 16th authorities relaxed the nighttime curfew so residents could seek warmth; an overnight strike on January 19th left about 1m users without power and cut central heating to several thousand homes as temperatures fell to -20°C. Russia is focusing on civilian energy infrastructure, especially substations that step down high voltage, aiming to detach the capital from the national grid. The mayor says roughly 600,000 people have already left; if local thermal plants are knocked out, water systems could fail and pipes might need draining until spring.
Air defence is also under strain. Planners face a fourfold bind: too little power, too few interceptor missiles, unusually low temperatures and increasingly accurate strikes. Russia’s main weapon is the Shahed drone, now produced by the hundreds daily; a typical tactic pairs a missile breach with dozens of drones. Shortages of Western interceptors persist, but scale is the bigger problem: over the past year Ukraine’s drone interception rate has fallen from 98% to 80%. After the January 19th attack, President Volodymyr Zelensky postponed Davos and ordered reforms to air-force command.
The most striking change is the appointment of Colonel Pavlo “Lazar” Yelizarov as assistant air-defence commander. His secretive unit is credited with destroying more than $12bn of Russian equipment and fields about 1,500 operators, deploying reconnaissance, night-bomber and interceptor drones every 10km along the front. Most operate remotely from underground bunkers in Kyiv, nearly all under 35. His standardized, domestically focused system aims to blunt mass drone attacks; its success may determine whether Kyiv freezes this winter.