表面上政权已恢复控制：德黑兰实施宵禁，安全部队搜查屋顶并突袭支持抗议的机构。但代价巨大。人权组织HRANA已核实死亡逾4,500人、被捕26,000人；德黑兰内部人士称真实死亡数或接近20,000。父母为取回被枪杀子女的遗体被迫缴纳数千美元的“子弹税”。最高领袖哈梅内伊执政36年，公开为镇压辩护，政权等级暂未改变，但血腥镇压使体系承压。

精英内部出现裂痕。哈梅内伊现年86岁，围绕其去留的议论增多；一些内部人士认为他在2025年核谈判中坚持保留象征性浓缩，错失解除制裁的协议。有人预期其可能在3至12个月内退场。改革派设想多种过渡方案，从削弱教权到“宫廷政变”；被点名者包括议长卡利巴夫与国家安全委员会负责人拉里贾尼。关键在安全部门：伊斯兰革命卫队约17万人，正规军约40万人，内部并非铁板一块，部分人或优先自保。

反对派也在布局。前王储礼萨·巴列维最显眼，但进步阵线对王朝复辟心存疑虑。女性主导的“阿扎迪”网络将发布39页的《民主过渡框架》，提出100天国际监督、随后选举制宪会议并设立7人领导委员会。2024年GAMAAN调查显示，89%支持民主，但对体制分歧明显：26%支持世俗共和国，21%主张君主立宪，20%支持伊斯兰共和国。分裂或削弱反对派；而外部变量亦在逼近，一支规模不小的美国海军特遣队正靠近伊朗海岸。

On the surface the regime has reasserted control: Tehran is under curfew, rooftops are searched and firms raided. The toll is immense. HRANA has verified more than 4,500 deaths and 26,000 arrests; officials in Tehran say the true death toll may approach 20,000. Parents pay “bullet taxes” of thousands of dollars to retrieve the bodies of shot children. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in power for 36 years, has defended the killings; the hierarchy stands, but the bloodshed strains the system.

Elite fissures are widening. At 86, Khamenei’s position is debated; insiders say his insistence on retaining token enrichment squandered a 2025 nuclear deal that might have lifted sanctions. Some expect his exit within three to 12 months. Reformists float transitions ranging from curbing clerical power to a palace coup; names include parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and security chief Ali Larijani. The hinge is the security apparatus: the IRGC numbers about 170,000 and the regular army roughly 400,000, and loyalty is not monolithic.

Opposition forces are also preparing. Reza Pahlavi is the most visible figure, but a progressive front distrusts royalist restoration. The women-led Azadi network will soon release a 39-page “Democratic Transition Framework” proposing 100 days of international supervision, then elections for a constitutional assembly and a seven-person council. A 2024 GAMAAN survey found 89% favour democracy, but disagree on form: 26% prefer a secular republic, 21% a monarchy, and 20% an Islamic republic. Rivalries may hobble change, as an American naval task force approaches Iran’s shores.