截至 2026 年 3 月 5 日，DeepSeek 的新模型仍未发布，但市场记忆仍集中于其前一代推理模型在单日内使 Nvidia 市值蒸发近 6,000 亿美元（USD 600 billion）所造成的冲击。这一数值级事件，解释了为何矽谷在产品公开前即展开高强度叙事竞逐。OpenAI 与 Anthropic 一方面在五角大厦合约与安全治理上公开冲突，另一方面却在指控 DeepSeek 上迅速形成一致口径。

争议核心是「蒸馏」（distillation）：以一个模型的输出训练另一个模型。文中指出，这不是新型攻击，而是至少自 2015 年 Geoffrey Hinton 共同论文以来即被广泛使用的研究与工程方法。因而，当美国领先实验室将其在中国训练管线中定义为「非法」时，论述呈现出规范选择性的张力，尤其在其自身也面临资料取得、报酬分配与智慧财产正当性争议之下。

文章的政策讯号是：美方若将重点放在对中国工具施加「声誉成本」，可能反映防御性姿态，而非竞争力增量。回看 2024 年夏季以来，美国限制措施更偏向「拖慢中国」而非「加速美国」，并可能诱发类 Sputnik 的替代研发动能。同时，中国国内竞争者数量与发布频率正上升（如 Alibaba、Zhipu、MiniMax、Moonshot）；若 DeepSeek 新模型表现不佳，市场将自行定价其声誉成本。

As of March 5, 2026, DeepSeek’s next model is still unreleased, yet market memory remains anchored to its prior reasoning model, which erased nearly $600 billion in Nvidia market value in a single day. That single-day magnitude explains why Silicon Valley is running an intense narrative campaign before any public launch. OpenAI and Anthropic are publicly split over a Pentagon contract and safety governance, yet they rapidly converged in accusations against DeepSeek.

The dispute centers on distillation: training one model on another model’s outputs. The article argues this is not a novel attack method but a mainstream research and engineering practice, used for years and documented at least since Geoffrey Hinton’s 2015 co-authored paper. Therefore, when leading US labs classify it as “illicit” in Chinese pipelines, the argument appears normatively selective, especially while those same firms face ongoing disputes over data sourcing, compensation, and intellectual-property legitimacy.

The policy signal is that calls to impose “reputational costs” on Chinese tools may indicate a defensive posture rather than a competitiveness gain. Since summer 2024, US restrictions appear to have focused more on slowing China than accelerating America, and may have triggered a Sputnik-like push to build alternatives. Meanwhile, the number and launch tempo of domestic Chinese rivals are rising (Alibaba, Zhipu, MiniMax, Moonshot); if DeepSeek’s next model underperforms, market pricing will impose reputational costs without government stigma campaigns.