Chainalysis 报告指出，空袭开始后的峰值一小时外流约为230万美元（原文 $2.3 million），比伊朗正常每小时基准高出873%。Elliptic 在 Nobitex 观察到约700%的激增：2月28日的每小时峰值外流达289万美元（原文 $2.89 million），前一日为35.8万美元（原文 $358,000），增加约253.2万美元（原文 $2.532 million）。据称 Nobitex 拥有超过1,100万用户，且 Elliptic 将其部分活动连结到与军方一致的金融行为。
这些激增相对于78亿美元（原文 $7.8 billion）的整体市场虽小，但符合更大的趋势：在制裁、货币贬值与两位数通膨下，加密货币正嵌入伊朗受压的金融系统。Elliptic 表示，伊朗中央银行在一年内取得超过5亿美元（原文 $500 million）的美元挂钩数位资产；Chainalysis 则称伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）在去年第四季占全国加密活动逾50%。美国 OFAC 近期将两家伊朗交易所列入制裁名单，进一步显示加密资金流已同时具有总体经济与地缘政治意义。
The US-Israeli war has renewed scrutiny of Iran’s cryptocurrency market, valued at $7.8 billion, as households and state actors use digital assets to store and move money during instability. Blockchain analytics from Chainalysis and Elliptic indicate abrupt post-strike outflows, implying defensive capital flight by individuals, sanctions-evading payments by government-linked entities, or both. Ari Redbord of TRM Labs described a dual pattern: legitimate crisis use and regime-level evasion through the same infrastructure.
Chainalysis reported a peak-hour outflow of about $2.3 million after strikes began, which was 873% above Iran’s normal hourly baseline. Elliptic found a roughly 700% spike at Nobitex: peak hourly outflow on Feb. 28 reached $2.89 million versus $358,000 on the previous day, an increase of about $2.532 million. Nobitex reportedly has over 11 million users, and Elliptic linked parts of its activity to military-aligned finance.
These spikes are small relative to the $7.8 billion market, but they fit a larger trend of crypto becoming embedded in Iran’s stressed financial system amid sanctions, currency devaluation, and double-digit inflation. Elliptic said the Central Bank of Iran acquired more than $500 million in dollar-backed digital assets over one year, while Chainalysis said the IRGC represented over 50% of national crypto activity in last year’s fourth quarter. Recent OFAC sanctions on two Iranian exchanges reinforce that crypto flows now carry both macroeconomic and geopolitical significance.