周日，日本选民正在为众议院选举投票；民调显示执政的自民党可能大胜，这可能让首相 Sanae Takaichi 获得新的授权，但全国部分地区的严寒与降雪为投票率及胜负差距增添不确定性。Nikkei Asia 认为这场投票不仅关乎国内，也具有全球影响力，因为日本的领导选择会形塑区域安全、同盟互动与经济政策讯号。为评估其国际利害关系，Nikkei Asia 征询了 4 位长期撰稿评论者对中国、美国、南韩与印度的看法。

从中国视角，Trivium China 的 David Tingxuan Zhang 认为北京更偏好一个被削弱的 Takaichi，并警告若自民党在众议院取得多数，可能把寒意锁定为长期状态，且在中国加强指控日本「militarization」之际，紧张关系或将扩展到安全领域。从美国视角，Hudson Institute 的 Riley Walters 写道，总统 Donald Trump 已公开背书 Takaichi，并将她推动更强大、更自立的日本，描述为符合华府希望盟友在印太地区承担更多区域防务责任的方向。从首尔出发，Hanyang University 的 Joseph Yi 呼吁深化日韩合作，将其定位为对民主未来的投资，而非在历史争议上的让步。

从新德里出发，Brahma Chellaney 主张这次选举将有助于决定日本是成为更自主的战略行动者，还是在「weaponized interdependence」的时代中仍易受外部压力影响；他强调，结果可能改变日本在威慑、经济杠杆与外交回旋空间之间的平衡方式。文中提到的相关评论文章包括：这场竞争在动荡世界中必须关注、即使 Takaichi 的押注成功她对中国的选项仍可能受限，以及她的「Japan First」路线代表对 Shinzo Abe 开放议程的重新校准。文章中少数明确的量化讯号主要属于结构性资讯，即 4 个外部观点，以及天候对投票率的影响可能在民调看好的结果中造成实质改变这一核心但书。

On Sunday, Japanese voters are casting ballots in a lower house election that could give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a fresh mandate, with polls signaling a sizable win for her ruling Liberal Democratic Party while frigid temperatures and snow across parts of the country add uncertainty about turnout and margins. Nikkei Asia frames the vote as globally consequential, not just domestically, because Japan’s leadership choices shape regional security, alliance dynamics, and economic policy signals. To assess the international stakes, Nikkei Asia solicited views from 4 regular commentators covering China, the U.S., South Korea, and India.

From the China angle, Trivium China’s David Tingxuan Zhang argues Beijing would prefer a weakened Takaichi, warning that an LDP lower house majority would likely lock in a prolonged chill and could expand tensions into security as China amplifies accusations of Japan’s “militarization.” From the U.S. angle, Hudson Institute’s Riley Walters writes that President Donald Trump has openly endorsed Takaichi, portraying her push for a stronger, more self-reliant Japan as aligned with Washington’s desire for allies to take greater responsibility for regional defense across the Indo-Pacific. From Seoul, Hanyang University’s Joseph Yi urges deeper Japan–South Korea cooperation, framing it as an investment in a democratic future rather than a concession about historical disputes.

From New Delhi, Brahma Chellaney argues the election will help determine whether Japan becomes a more autonomous strategic actor or remains vulnerable to external pressure in an era of “weaponized interdependence,” underscoring that the outcome could shift how Japan balances deterrence, economic leverage, and diplomatic room to maneuver. Related opinion pieces highlighted include arguments that the contest is a must-watch in a disrupted world, that Takaichi’s China options could be constrained even if her gamble succeeds, and that her “Japan First” approach represents a recalibration of Shinzo Abe’s openness agenda. The article’s few explicit quantitative signals are chiefly structural, namely 4 outside perspectives and the central caveat that weather effects on turnout could meaningfully influence an otherwise poll-favored result.