如果说有一个信念能把日本观察者团结起来，那就是其经济“不正常”：净公共债务与GDP之比高达130%却利率极低，而且即便日本央行在过去两年把利率从-0.1%上调到0.75%，日元仍几乎和2024年年中触及38年低点时一样疲软，在贸易加权并按通胀调整后也属全球最疲软之一，甚至传出日美可能联合干预以支撑它。

尽管自2024年以来（计入自然到期赎回后）日本央行的净购债为负，它仍每月买入2.9万亿日元（190亿美元）的国债，使收益率偏低并压软日元需求。好消息是财政指标近年改善：净债务/GDP自2020年以来每年下降，去年基础赤字为GDP的0.9%（2019年为2.4%），而过去一年通胀多在3%以上，推动名义增长与税收，使债务增速低于GDP。

在2024年3月结束收益率曲线控制后，10年期名义收益率从0.7%升至2.3%（接近德国10年期国债的2.8%），但10年期实际收益率仅0.2%，低于德国的1%和美国的近2%，与美国约2个百分点的差距在四年里几乎不变。公共部门合并口径的净负债被估计在2024年仅为GDP的78%，过去十年资产相关收益平均每年达GDP的6%，但日元仍约50%被低估，现为1美元兑153日元而长期公允约为90日元，并且若通胀回落到2%且撤出2010年代购债压低的1—3个百分点收益率、加上海外资产的久期与货币错配，资本流可能逆转并给预算施压。

Let's start by outlining Japan's current economic situation, focusing on the high debt ratio of 130% despite low interest rates. The Bank of Japan has recently increased rates from -0.1% to 0.75% over two years, yet the yen appears weak near its 38-year low as of mid-2024, raising speculation about possible joint market interventions.

In terms of fiscal health, the picture has brightened somewhat. The Bank of Japan continues to purchase approximately ¥2.9 trillion ($19 billion) in government bonds monthly, even as net debt has been decreasing since 2020. The primary budget deficit decreased to 0.9% last year from 2.4% in 2019, helped by inflation above 3% for much of the past year, which supports nominal growth and tax revenues.

In March 2024, the end of yield-curve control saw the 10-year yield rise from 0.7% to 2.3%, now close to Germany's 2.8%. However, Japan's real yield stands at only 0.2%, compared to 1% in Germany and around 2% in the U.S., maintaining a roughly 2 percentage point gap unchanged for four years.

Source: Why is the yen still so weak?

Subtitle: Newly alluring yields on Japanese bonds have not propped up the currency

Dateline: 1月 29, 2026 04:18 上午