如果把飞往月球比作横渡英吉利海峡，那么自阿波罗17号在53年前溅落太平洋以来，没有人会离开海滩超过40米。预计在未来几周内，阿耳忒弥斯二号将把4名机组人员送上“自由返回”轨道，绕月呈“8”字一圈后约在发射后10天溅落太平洋。

截至1月26日，机组人员已被隔离检疫，最早的发射窗口从2月7日格林尼治时间凌晨2点41分开始，而如果发射台上停留超过3月底就需要回库更换电池并进一步推迟。这将是“猎户座”飞船的第3次飞行；其第2次飞行即2022年的无人“阿耳忒弥斯一号”出现电气故障并发生热防护盾意外损伤，调查使阿耳忒弥斯二号推迟超过1年，而通过调整再入轨迹而非更换热防护盾的补救方案仍被一些专家称为“严重风险”。

真正登月的阿耳忒弥斯三号标注为2027年，但在“猎户座”更重且SLS能力更弱的约束下，任务必须分成两次发射，并依赖SpaceX（2002年成立）的“星舰”上面级改造HLS与尚未实现的在轨加注；泄露文件暗示今年夏天进行测试、明年进行无人登月，但载人登月在2028年前看起来不可能且可能继续滑向后续年份。与此同时，中国载人航天工程办公室表示目标是在2030年载人登月，并在8月对“揽月”着陆器进行过模拟着陆与起飞；其方案从单枚“长征九号”改为两枚“长征十号”，并使用在2020年完成无人测试的三人“梦舟”，而NASA在1月13日宣布将为月面前哨开发核反应堆并计划在2027年开始发射“月球门户”组件。

It's been 53 years since Apollo 17, with a crew of four planned for a ten-day mission. The launch window is set for 2:41 AM GMT on February 7, with an uncrewed landing expected next year. Artemis III aims for a crewed lunar landing by 2027, but achieving this before 2028 looks impossible, especially after a significant delay.

We should also emphasize key figures, like comparing 40 meters to the English Channel to illustrate how modest that distance is. This Apollo mission marks its third attempt, split into two parts involving "two Long March 10s." The planned Gateway in 2027 reflects ongoing trends in space exploration.

Artemis III is penciled in for 2027 but may likely be postponed. SpaceX's Human Landing System needs orbital refueling, which hasn't been done before, and there are plans for an uncrewed landing next year. However, a crewed mission before 2028 seems impossible, especially with China aiming for a 2030 launch.

Source: For the first time in half a century, astronauts are going to the Moo

Subtitle: They will not land. Others, both American and Chinese, soon may

Dateline: 1月 29, 2026 06:12 上午