近一月中国对日施压升级，从向联合国递交信函到联合法国与俄罗斯，再到中断文化活动。上海先后叫停 Maki Otsuki 与 Ayumi Hamasaki 的演出，触及全球销售逾 5 亿册的《One Piece》及日本最畅销歌手等高影响力文化符号，引发国际反弹。日本首相高市早苗因台湾相关言论遭持续施压，但其国内支持率在最新《日经》民调中达 75%，在劳动年龄段超过 80%，反而因争议进一步巩固政治地位。

中国官媒近期进一步质疑冲绳主权，试图以历史叙事模糊战后秩序，但 2022 年调查显示 90% 冲绳居民支持回归日本、仅 11% 对中国有好感。加上 2022 年解放军导弹落入日本专属经济区导致与台湾最近的与那国岛部署防空导弹，东京的安全立场已明显强化。将文化封锁、舆论攻击与主权争议捆绑放大，易被外界解读为压制表达自由，并可能提升地区对华警惕。

以旅行为施压工具的效果有限。官方宣称 12 月中日航班减少 40%，但高盛估算：若访日中国与香港旅客减少 50%，GDP 增速仅受拖累 0.2 个百分点，若由其他地区补足则减半。日本旅游依赖度已低于疫情前，因此冲击温和。若中国坚持要求高市收回言论，摩擦或将延续多年，但在国际受众眼中，弱者对强权的坚韧抵抗具有广泛吸引力，日本的“伙伴”（如《One Piece》所谓 nakama）也倾向团结守望。

Over the past month, China has intensified pressure on Japan through UN letters, diplomatic outreach to France and Russia, and the cancellation of cultural events. Performances by Maki Otsuki and Ayumi Hamasaki were halted in Shanghai, targeting icons linked to One Piece, whose manga has sold more than 500 million copies globally. The moves coincided with continued demands that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi retract remarks on Japan’s self-defense regarding Taiwan. Yet her support remains strong: the latest Nikkei poll shows 75% approval overall and above 80% among working-age voters.

Chinese state media have also questioned Okinawan sovereignty, invoking historical narratives to blur postwar boundaries. However, a 2022 poll found 90% approval for the islands’ reversion to Japan and only 11% favorability toward China. Combined with Tokyo’s strengthened defense posture — including surface-to-air missile deployment on Yonaguni after Chinese missiles fell into Japan’s EEZ in 2022 — the campaign risks hardening Japanese resolve. Actions targeting cultural figures, speech, and territorial narratives create an international contrast between repression and openness.

Tourism pressure appears limited in impact. Though state media highlighted a 40% reduction in flights in December, Goldman Sachs estimates that even a 50% drop in Chinese and Hong Kong visitors would slow GDP growth by only 0.2 percentage points, and half that if offset by other tourists. Japan is less dependent on Chinese tourism than before the pandemic. With Beijing persisting in demanding Takaichi’s retraction, the confrontation may extend for years, but global audiences often favor defiant underdogs, and Japan’s broad network of supporters — akin to the nakama of One Piece — remains cohesive.