以色列正在经历自2023年10月7日大屠杀以来的第四场战争；那次袭击中，巴勒斯坦激进组织哈马斯造成约1,200人死亡，并引发了地区力量格局的新一轮重组。哈马斯领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔原本想改变中东面貌，但结果朝着与其设想相反的方向发展。

内塔尼亚胡必须在10月前举行选举，而利库德集团消息人士认为战争一结束他就可能提前投票，希望借军事成果挽回政治地位。尽管一项调查显示压倒性的81%以色列人支持空袭，但只有38%对内塔尼亚胡表达高度信任，这意味着支持战争与信任领导人之间存在43个百分点的巨大落差。

美以在如何结束战争上仍可能分化：部分以色列人愿意持续施压直到伊朗被严重削弱甚至陷入内战，而美国更担忧对石油市场和全球航运的冲击；如果特朗普在几天内叫停战事，内塔尼亚胡很可能愤怒。海湾国家也面临同样的算计，因为一个被削弱但仍敌对的伊朗会推动其加强防务并更靠近以色列，而过早停火则可能让海合会质疑与美国这一最重要联盟的价值；历史上的第一次海湾战争还表明，一场战争的结束可能播下下一场战争的种子。

Israel is now in its fourth war since the October 7th, 2023 massacre, when Hamas killed about 1,200 people, and the conflict is reshaping regional alignments. Yahya Sinwar aimed to change the Middle East, but the change unfolding is the opposite of what he intended.

Netanyahu must hold an election by October, and Likud sources think he may bring it forward once the war ends, hoping military success will restore his political standing. Yet although an overwhelming 81% of Israelis back the strikes, only 38% say they have high trust in him, leaving a 43-point gap between support for the war and confidence in its leader.

The United States and Israel may still split over how to end the war: some Israelis would press on until Iran is badly weakened or even pushed toward civil war, while America is more worried about oil markets and global shipping; if Trump stops the war within days, Netanyahu would likely be furious. Gulf states face the same calculus, because a weakened but still hostile Iran would push them to strengthen defenses and align more closely with Israel, while a premature halt could make the GCC question the value of its closest alliance with America; the first Gulf war also showed how the end of one war can plant the seeds of the next.

Source: Binyamin Netanyahu is the big winner from the Iran war, for now

Subtitle: To avoid a row with Donald Trump, Western allies are endorsing Israeli theories of war

Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 04:15 上午