1月14日，丹麦外长拉尔斯·勒克·拉斯穆森与格陵兰方面在华盛顿同美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和副总统J.D.万斯举行紧张会谈；在1月3日美国将委内瑞拉独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗秘密转移离境之后，唐纳德·特朗普又重提“征服”格陵兰，并称除非该岛“在美国手中”，否则“不可接受”。双方表示“同意保留分歧”，但美国对一个北约盟友主权的施压引发欧洲警觉，欧洲的应对被概括为三类：缓和、威慑与分散注意。
在数字层面，1951年与丹麦签署的协议使美国事实上可在岛上部署“想部署多少就多少”的兵力，而冷战后部署从曾经可观缩减到如今在西北部单一基地不足200名士兵。与此同时，关于“俄罗斯和中国船只覆盖海域”的证据稀少，丹麦基本遏制了中方投资兴趣；稀土等矿产开采被认为成本高企，且美国企业即便无需主权转移也能取得采矿特许，但迄今兴趣有限。
在威慑与升级方面，丹麦在1月14日宣布增强其在格陵兰的海军、空军与陆上存在，并称法国、德国与瑞典等盟友将出力，但更进一步的升级可能反而增加特朗普采取行动的概率并牵动对乌克兰的安排。民意数据也不支持动武：仅4%的美国选民赞成用武力获取格陵兰；再加上11月中期选举等事务分散精力，欧洲寄望其言论最终要么被其他议题冲淡，要么只是为了在安全或采矿上逼丹麦达成交易。
On January 14, Denmark’s foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Greenland’s counterpart held a tense Washington meeting with U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio and vice-president J.D. Vance; after America’s January 3 exfiltration of Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump revived talk of “conquering” Greenland and said anything short of the island being “in the hands of the United States” was “unacceptable.” The sides “agreed to disagree,” but U.S. pressure on a NATO ally’s sovereignty alarmed Europe, whose response is framed as three tracks: deflate, deter, and distract.
In numerical terms, a 1951 agreement with Denmark effectively lets America station as many troops as it wants on Greenland, yet its post–cold war footprint shrank from a substantial deployment to fewer than 200 troops at a single north-west base. Meanwhile, evidence is scant for claims of seas “covered” with Russian and Chinese ships, Danish officials have largely seen off Chinese investment interest, and rare-earth mining looks prohibitively expensive, with U.S. firms showing little interest even though concessions would not require any sovereignty transfer.
On deterrence and escalation, Denmark announced on January 14 an increased naval, air, and land presence in Greenland, with allies such as France, Germany, and Sweden offering contributions, but further escalation could raise the odds of a Trump move and complicate Ukraine-related bargaining. Public numbers also cut against force: only 4% of American voters back using force to obtain Greenland; with November midterms and other crises competing for attention, Europe hopes the push either fades or is mainly leverage for a security or mining deal.
Source: Europe has three options for defending Greenland
Subtitle: Fending off Donald Trump may yet prove agonisingly difficult
Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 07:52 上午 | BERLIN