格陵兰民众对特朗普的收购言论感到恐惧。2025年1月21日，特朗普宣布与北约达成“未来框架”，并声称不会动用武力，但仍强调“所有权”对美国安全至关重要。民调显示，约85%的格陵兰人反对被美国收购，当地约5.6万人口中，约90%为因纽特人。尽管格陵兰依法可选择独立或并入他国，但特朗普的论证——既能提升安全又能带来繁荣——在事实和数据上站不住脚。
安全层面，美国面临的主要北极威胁并不集中在格陵兰。2020至2025年，北美防空司令部记录的95次俄中空域逼近中，91次发生在阿拉斯加周边，4次在加拿大附近，零次来自格陵兰—冰岛—英国通道。2024年，俄中核轰炸机巡航曾逼近阿拉斯加140海里。丹麦已承诺在格陵兰追加274亿丹麦克朗军费，并再购16架F-35，另耗资290亿丹麦克朗。美国完全可以在丹麦同意下加强现有皮图菲克基地，无需主权变更；事实上，疏远盟友反而削弱美国在北极的协作能力。
经济账同样不合算。丹麦每年向格陵兰提供近7亿美元补贴，约占其GDP的20%；约2.9万名劳动者中，1.25万人受雇于政府，失业补贴达最低工资的90%，约四分之三人口依赖公共支出。所谓一次性10万美元“买断”，不足覆盖丹麦福利的十年。资源开发前景有限：80%土地被冰川覆盖，历史上18座矿山关闭，目前仅两座在产。稀土项目累计投入超1亿美元与2.9亿美元仍未投产，北极采矿成本可达低纬度的2至3倍。即便不计安全与声誉损失，仅未来30年维持补贴约需100亿美元，加上扩建五个基地的200亿至300亿美元，收购格陵兰将是经济与战略上的双输。
Greenland’s residents reacted with fear to Donald Trump’s takeover rhetoric. On January 21st he announced a “future framework” with NATO and said he would not use force, yet kept insisting on ownership as vital to U.S. security. Polling shows about 85% of Greenlanders oppose being bought; the population is roughly 56,000, around 90% Inuit. Although Greenland could legally choose independence or another affiliation, Trump’s claims that annexation would boost security and prosperity lack evidentiary support.
On security, the data point elsewhere. From 2020 to 2025 NORAD logged 95 Russian and Chinese air-defence zone approaches: 91 near Alaska, four near Canada, and none via the Greenland–Iceland–UK gap. In 2024 a joint patrol came within 140 nautical miles of Alaska. Denmark is increasing forces in Greenland, committing DKr27.4bn and buying 16 F-35s for another DKr29bn. The U.S. can reinforce its Pituffik base with Danish consent; alienating allies would instead weaken Arctic cooperation.
The economics are worse. Denmark transfers nearly $700m annually—about 20% of GDP—to Greenland; of roughly 29,000 workers, 12,500 are state employees, and benefits reach 90% of the minimum wage, leaving about three-quarters of residents reliant on the state. A one-off $100,000 payment would cover less than a decade of Danish welfare. Resource prospects are thin: 80% ice cover, 18 mines closed historically, just two operating today. Rare-earth projects have sunk over $100m and $290m pre-production, while Arctic mining costs run 2–3 times lower-latitude levels. Add roughly $10bn (present value) to sustain welfare over 30 years and $20–30bn to build five bases, and annexation looks like a costly strategic misstep.