在经历了26年的破坏后，今天的委内瑞拉比四分之一个世纪以来任何时刻都更接近政治转型。2023年10月的初选使国内外委内瑞拉人团结起来，参与监票的志愿者保障了流程透明。在2024年7月28日的大选中，反对派候选人埃德蒙多·冈萨雷斯以67%的支持率赢得总统职位，超过85%的官方票据在24小时内由公民安全保存，这在资源极度匮乏和媒体遭受严厉审查的国家极为罕见。
面对压倒性的民主动员，政权选择回以镇压，拒绝承认选举结果，并实施集体惩罚、强迫失踪与酷刑来压制已不可逆转的选票真相。然而，国际社会终于认清了该政权的犯罪本质，并采取实际行动。美国及一些拉美和加勒比盟友推动海上拦截、制裁和执法，限制了政权财源，这种压力已使体制内部信任崩塌，派系相互指责，威慑力转而内向消耗政权自身。
市场对此反应积极，原被视为毫无价值的委内瑞拉债券已经反弹，投资者和各国政府注意到该国正有序走向复苏。委内瑞拉拥有世界最大石油储量和丰富资源，预估民主转型可在15年内释放高达1.7万亿美元的商业机遇。军队主流支持宪法、反对派拥有领导权、国际压力增加，民主转型已实际启动，并不可阻挡。公民的勇气和团结预示着委内瑞拉正迎来新生。
After 26 years of devastation, Venezuela today is closer to a political transition than at any point in a quarter-century. The October 2023 primaries reunited Venezuelans both inside and outside the country, and volunteers ensured transparency. In the July 28, 2024 election, opposition candidate Edmundo González won the presidency with 67% of the vote, and over 85% of official tally sheets were safeguarded by citizens within 24 hours—an extraordinary feat in a nation with scarce resources and tight media censorship.
Faced with overwhelming democratic mobilization, the regime responded with repression, refusing to acknowledge the results and using collective punishment, forced disappearances, and torture to suppress the irreversible electoral truth. However, the international community now recognizes the regime’s criminal nature and has acted: the United States, along with several Latin American and Caribbean allies, conducted maritime interdictions, sanctions enforcement, and law-enforcement measures, which have undermined the regime’s finances and internal trust.
Markets have responded positively, with Venezuelan bonds—once worthless—rallying as investors and governments recognize signs of an orderly recovery. With the world’s largest oil reserves and abundant resources, a democratic transition is estimated to unlock a $1.7 trillion business opportunity over 15 years. The military mostly supports the constitution, the opposition has a mandate, international pressure is mounting, and democratic change has practically begun. The courage and unity of citizens signal Venezuela’s national rebirth.