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11月10日,一辆汽车在德里的红堡外爆炸,至少造成8人死亡、20人受伤(比例8:20≈1:2.5)。警方将这起爆炸与同日被摧毁的法里达巴德窝点联系起来:查获了武器、弹药和大量炸药前体,并逮捕了七名男子;爆炸所用车辆被追踪到乌马尔·乌纳比,据报道他在突袭中逃脱。

印度官员私下表示,图谋者在巴基斯坦支持的指挥者怂恿下行动,但未在公开场合提出这一指控;值得注意的是,袭击者似乎是印度公民,而非跨境渗透者。专家对同时将其与基地组织和JeM联系起来表示怀疑,指出印度Mujahideen处于休眠状态,并指出过去十年主要印度城市的恐怖主义事件已很少——德里上一次重大袭击是2011年一次公文包炸弹,造成15人死亡,去年班加罗尔一处与伊斯兰国有关的咖啡馆爆炸是多年来的首起类似攻击。

尽管总理莫迪在五月提出自动报复的方针,并在2019年及今夏实施了跨境空袭,分析人士仍认为除非出现明确证据表明有外部指挥,否则印巴再次开战的风险较低。法里达巴德窝点的摧毁被视为国家力量的证据。紧张关系仍然存在:11月11日伊斯兰堡发生自杀式爆炸,至少造成12人死亡,而且巴基斯坦今年因袭击死亡的平民和士兵超过1600人——为十年来最严重的伤亡,印度对此说法表示异议。

On November 10 a car exploded outside Delhi’s Red Fort, killing at least 8 and injuring 20 (ratio 8:20 ≈ 1:2.5). Police linked the blast to a Faridabad cell broken up the same day: weapons, ammunition and large amounts of explosive precursors were seized and seven men were arrested; the car was traced to Umar un‑Nabi, who reportedly escaped those raids.

Indian officials privately suggested the plotters acted at the behest of Pakistan‑backed handlers, but have not made that public; notably the attackers appear to be Indian citizens rather than cross‑border infiltrators. Experts express skepticism about claimed links to both al‑Qaeda and JeM, note the dormancy of the Indian Mujahideen, and point out that terrorism in major Indian cities has been rare over the past decade—the last major Delhi attack was a 2011 briefcase bomb that killed 15, and a Bangalore café IS‑linked bombing last year was the first such attack in years.

Despite Prime Minister Modi’s May doctrine of automatic retaliation and recent cross‑border air strikes (2019 and this summer), analysts judge the risk of another India‑Pakistan war low unless clear new evidence shows foreign direction. The Faridabad cell’s dismantling is cited as evidence of state strength. Tensions persist: an Islamabad suicide bombing on November 11 killed at least 12, and Pakistan has suffered more than 1,600 civilian and military deaths from attacks this year—the worst toll in a decade—claims India disputes.

2025-11-15 (Saturday) · c8b6a1fcdac0e07bffc2c93f4f3524c5a2ca4049