印度需要大约每年8%的GDP增长才能在2047年达到富国地位，超过过去25年约6%的平均水平；只有少数大邦能达到约8%。古吉拉特（约占印度人口5%）贡献超过8%的GDP，占出口的25%以上，并在2022–23财政年之前以约8%的年均率增长；人均收入比全国平均高60%。然而，近12%的古吉拉特人处于多维贫困——约为泰米尔纳德邦的五倍——且古吉拉特不到50%的年轻人完成高中学业，而全国平均为58%。古吉拉特在约20年内将发电能力提高了五倍。

泰米尔纳德邦去年增长11%。其电子产品出口约150亿美元（约占印度电子出口的40%）——较2022–23翻了三倍——且它是汽车和车辆制造大省。卫生和教育指标超越古吉拉特：基层卫生中心医生约多60%；公立医院床位超过两倍；超过80%的少年完成最大学龄；约50%的年轻人上大学（全国为28%）；约40%的印度女性制造业工人在泰米尔纳德工作。人均GDP与古吉拉特相近，但贫困远低于后者。

教训：各邦差异巨大；沿海位置、侨汇与亲商文化有利，但难以快速复制。古吉拉特对硬件基础设施（道路、电力）和大型项目的投入提升了增长，却在就业与人力资本方面收获有限；泰米尔纳德长期的社会投入则扩大了增长收益并吸引了电子与技术制造。要实现持续约8%的全国增长，政策制定者必须投资健康与教育，并应对性别歧视、种姓与环境等阻碍。

India needs about 8% annual GDP growth to reach rich-country status by 2047, up from roughly 6% average over the past 25 years; only a few big states achieve ~8%. Gujarat (≈5% of India’s population) produces >8% of GDP, accounts for >25% of exports, and grew ≈8% annually to 2022–23; income per person is 60% above the national average. Yet nearly 12% of Gujaratis face multidimensional poverty—about five times Tamil Nadu’s rate—and under 50% of Gujarat’s youths complete high school versus a 58% national average. Gujarat also boosted power capacity five-fold over ~20 years.

Tamil Nadu grew 11% last year. Its electronics exports were about $15bn (≈40% of India’s electronics exports) — triple the 2022–23 level — and it is a major maker of cars and vehicles. Health and education indicators outperform Gujarat: primary-health centres have ~60% more doctors; public hospitals have >2x the beds; over 80% of youngsters stay in school the maximum period; roughly 50% of young adults attend college (national 28%); ~40% of India’s women manufacturing workers are employed in Tamil Nadu. GDP per person is similar to Gujarat but poverty is far lower.

Lessons: states are diverse; coastal location, diasporas and business-friendly cultures help but are not easily replicated. Gujarat’s focus on hard infrastructure (roads, power) and megaprojects raised growth but delivered less inclusive job and human-capital outcomes; Tamil Nadu’s long-term social investment broadened gains and attracted electronics and skilled manufacturing. To hit sustained ~8% national growth policymakers must invest in health and education and tackle sexism, caste and environmental barriers.