无人机已成为标准化作战武器：小型四旋翼目前在乌克兰战场造成了大多数伤亡，而近期伊朗对中东城市、机场和油气设施的袭击 reportedly 动用数千架更大型无人机。关键的作战趋势是从“多人成本一架机”转向“一人控多机”，因为未预先规划航线的小型系统仍可能需要多达6人操控，集群协同才能把火力快速集中到单一目标。
集群技术目前从“去冲突分配”到自治化任务复杂度各异。英国布里姆斯通反坦克导弹服役已逾20年，可按优先序列齐射，而俄军V2U按颜色分配打击顺序并由后机顶替失手目标，后续仍会因失去前机视线出现队列偏移；乌克兰在2025年2月表示已有12家企业在研发无人机集群并计划年底前先行部署，Pasika和Swarmer的进展显示出可行性，前者实现单人操作通信与协同待机，后者已测试到25架规模。
美国Auterion向乌克兰供应了数万套Skynode模块化打击套件，1月美国军方在“Swarm Forge”演示中展示了单一操作员选定目标后由Nemyx软件自动连续打击；洛伦茨·梅耶尔称其可在有机失效后自动接管目标。尽管分析认为成熟的“数十架”集群仍需2到3年，因网状网络扩展性是瓶颈，但3月13日俄方称乌军使用300至400架无人机在20公里纵深窄前沿实施打击，说明节奏可能正被快速推近，并可能改变此前“FPV数量优势偏向防守方、俄方收获有限”的格局。
Drones have become a standard weapon of war: small quadcopters now account for the majority of battlefield casualties in Ukraine, while recent Iranian attacks in the Middle East reportedly used thousands of larger drones against cities, airfields, and oil facilities. The central operational trend is shifting from “many people per drone” to “one operator for many drones,” since non-preprogrammed systems can still require up to six people, and swarming enables coordinated concentration of fire on the same target.
Current swarm capabilities span from deconfliction logic to full mission autonomy. Brimstone, in service for over 20 years, already applies priority sequencing, while Russia’s V2U uses color-coded role assignment and can let later aircraft inherit a missed target, though queue disruption can occur if tracking is lost; Ukraine appears to be scaling fastest, with 12 firms reported in February 2025 to be developing swarms for deployment by year-end, and systems like Pasika and Swarmer showing practical progress, including one-operator control and trials up to 25 drones.
Auterion is a major U.S. competitor, having supplied tens of thousands of Skynode strike kits, and a January U.S. Department of Defense “Swarm Forge” demo showed one operator selecting a target while Nemyx software executed rapid sequential attacks with automatic re-assignment on loss. Analysts still estimate truly mature swarms of tens of drones are 2 to 3 years away due to mesh-network scaling constraints, yet Russian reports of 300 to 400 drones striking along a 20 km deep narrow front on March 13 suggest capabilities are advancing and could overturn the current pattern in which high FPV volumes favored defenders and yielded only limited Russian gains.
Source: Autonomous swarms are the future of drone warfare
Subtitle: Much of the innovation is being carried out in Ukraine
Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 04:46 上午