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尽管美国三十年期公债殖利率近期突破百分之五,达到数十年来的新高,但新兴市场债券并未如预期般遭到抛售。在过去一年中,新兴市场当地货币与美元计价债券皆实现了约百分之八至九的显著正报酬,展现出强大的韧性。(关键数字:30)

新兴市场之所以能保持吸引力,主要归功于其主动提供高额的实质殖利率,并维持相对稳健的财政纪律。以巴西和南非为例,两国扣除通膨后的实质殖利率仍具竞争力,且新兴市场整体的财政赤字占国内生产毛额的比例远低于美国。

尽管维持高利率环境对新兴市场的本土借款人带来沉重压力,但这些国家已经逐渐适应此种经济型态。相较于美国政府面临的过度支出问题,新兴市场透过平衡预算成功确保了偿债能力,这或许是美国财政部门值得借镜的经验。



Although the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds has recently surpassed five percent to reach multi-decade highs, emerging market bonds have not experienced the expected sell-off. Over the past year, both local currency and dollar-denominated emerging market bonds have achieved significant positive returns of about eight to nine percent, demonstrating strong resilience.

The sustained attractiveness of emerging markets is largely due to their proactive offering of high real yields and maintenance of relatively sound fiscal discipline. For instance, Brazil and South Africa offer competitive real yields after adjusting for inflation, and the aggregate fiscal deficit of emerging markets as a percentage of gross domestic product remains much lower than that of the United States.

While maintaining a high-interest-rate environment places severe pressure on domestic borrowers within emerging markets, these countries have gradually adapted to this economic model. Compared to the overspending issues faced by the US government, emerging markets have successfully ensured their debt repayment capabilities by balancing their budgets, which may be a lesson worth learning for the US Treasury.
2026-08-28 (Friday) · bd6635639159e2ae969fcb6b3832f03d7df0f66b