至少有两艘与伊朗相关的油轮 G Summer 与 Hong Lu 先后经由拉拉克岛与盖什姆岛之间进入波斯湾,现在皆落入美国扩大后的拦截规则;二者先前皆在阿布达比/富查伊拉(Fujairah)附近活动,后沿伊朗海岸向北进入霍尔木兹,而另一艘前往伊朗、载粮食目的地的散装船 Rosalina 也走了相同路线。小型成品油船 Nobler 亦于稍后自霍尔木兹向东越出至阿曼,前往索哈尔;该船在二月初进入波斯湾后,已在约七周冲突期内一直停留于该水域。
这些资料显示,战时石油出口管制并非完全停止。伊朗据报仍维持接近战前的出口水准,但自冲突开始起约有四分之三(约75%)的伊朗原油由未开放 AIS 讯号的油轮运输,故基于 AIS 的官方流量估算在结构上偏低。大量船舶采取「暗舰队」作业模式使监控仍偏不完整。面临威胁的战时油流约为每天1.7百万桶(约合270,000立方公尺/日),而空载油轮持续进出可能代表在延长封锁下保留浮动储油能力,并借由减少直接对抗来维持德黑兰最低程度的物流通道。
The U.S. Navy command announced that any vessel linked to Iran, under OFAC sanctions, or suspected of carrying contraband can be visited, boarded, searched, and seized regardless of location, suggesting the blockade could extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime traffic remains highly constrained, and shipowners, energy traders, and investors read each transit as a signal of how Tehran and Washington balance pressure with supply risk. Since the blockade began, the U.S. says it has forced 14 ships to turn back; AIS-based tracking has not observed any fully laden Iranian oil tankers exiting through Hormuz, heightening market concern about possible supply disruption.
At least two Iran-linked tankers, G Summer and Hong Lu, entered the Persian Gulf via the Larak–Qeshm route, and both now fall under the expanded U.S. interdiction rules. The two had previously been in UAE waters near Fujairah, moved along the Iranian coast northward into Hormuz, and in that window an Iran-bound bulk carrier, Rosalina, also traveled with a food destination. Shortly afterward, a small products tanker, Nobler, crossed eastward out of Hormuz toward Sohar in Oman; it had entered the Persian Gulf in early February and remained there throughout roughly a seven-week conflict window.
The data suggest wartime crude export control is not a total shutdown. Iran is reported to have kept exports close to pre-war levels, yet about three quarters (roughly 75%) of post-war crude has been carried on tankers with AIS signals off, so AIS-based flow estimates are structurally biased downward. Widespread dark-operations behavior means monitoring remains incomplete. The oil flow at risk is estimated at around 1.7 million barrels per day (about 270,000 cubic meters per day), while continuing movements of empty tankers may reflect efforts to preserve floating storage and preserve a minimal logistics channel for Tehran while avoiding direct confrontation.