关于美元主导地位的争论在 Donald Trump 的贸易、地缘政治与财政政策变化下升温，这些政策被认为削弱了美国资产吸引力。部分分析人士将欧元、黄金与数位资产视为可能的储备资产竞争者，但 Sonal Desai 指出，欧元区无法以足够规模发行统一的安全资产；人民币仍处于资本管制之下，且缺乏可兑换性，短期内难以构成实质威胁。
Desai 引用了国际清算银行 2025 年三年期调查：美元在场外外汇（OTC FX）成交额中占 89%，而人民币仅为 8.5%，显示美元主导仍极为集中。她认为目前美元走弱属于循环性而非结构性；以实质贸易加权衡量，美元仍高于 1990 年代中期与 2000 年代末的低谷。作为全球储备货币，适度走弱反而可被视为其角色中的常态波动之一。
In a Franklin Templeton note, Sonal Desai, the firm’s chief investment officer of fixed income, argued that the U.S. dollar remains the currency of choice supported by three pillars: the scale of the world’s largest economy, deep markets, and institutional credibility. She said no credible alternatives exist now, and creating the institutional infrastructure to support another global reserve currency would take decades.
The debate has intensified as Donald Trump’s trade, geopolitical, and fiscal policies, viewed as erratic, have reduced the appeal of U.S. assets. Some analysts see the euro, gold, and digital assets as potential reserve-asset challengers. Yet Desai noted that the euro area cannot issue a unified safe asset at sufficient scale, while the renminbi remains under capital controls and lacks full convertibility.
Desai cited the Bank for International Settlements’ 2025 triennial survey showing the dollar represented 89% of over-the-counter FX turnover, versus 8.5% for the renminbi. She argued the dollar’s current weakness is cyclical rather than structural: in real trade-weighted terms, the greenback is still above troughs in the mid-1990s and late 2000s. So some dollar softness is consistent with its continuing role as the global reserve currency.