绿氢进展不如预期：在仍成长的每年约 1 亿公吨氢气市场中，已运行或在建的绿氢专案仅约 300 万公吨（约 3%）。国际能源署 9 月把 2030 年低排放/绿氢产能潜力下修约四分之一至 3,700 万公吨，显示取消与成本不确定性正在抑制扩张速度。
可再生能源面临利率与供水双重曲线球：短端政策利率虽走低，但长端公债利率更「黏」，殖利率曲线较陡不利于前期资本支出高的风光电与电网。水力约占洁净电力三分之一却连年偏枯：欧盟前 8 个月水电较 2024 年下降 13%。印尼生质燃料政策若把柴油棕榈油掺配升至 50%，可能在 2042 年前额外转换 530 万公顷森林，且又提议再开发 2,000 万公顷；印度化石发电今年预期下降 5%（十多年最差），但仍计划到 2035 年把煤电机队扩张近 50%。
The piece argues that cutting particulate pollution (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ozone) has clear health benefits but may be accelerating warming and intensifying rainfall volatility. With fewer particles to reflect sunlight and seed cloud droplets, more solar energy reaches the surface and storms can become more violent. A study published in November suggests that cloud-brightness changes from reduced particulates over roughly the past two decades may have contributed about half as much to Earth’s energy imbalance as carbon-dioxide emissions, implying future warming from carbon could be underestimated.
Green hydrogen is portrayed as stalling relative to early expectations. In a hydrogen market of about 100 million metric tons per year, projects operating or under construction for green H2 total only around 3 million tons (about 3%). In September the International Energy Agency cut its estimated potential 2030 green-hydrogen capacity by roughly a quarter, down to 37 million metric tons, highlighting cancellations, slow project conversion, and uncertain cost declines.
Financing conditions emerge as a key headwind: even if central-bank rates ease, stickier long-term bond yields and a steeper yield curve can penalize capital-intensive renewables and grids versus fuel-intensive fossil plants. Hydropower—about one-third of clean electricity—has underperformed amid dry years; EU hydro output fell 13% in the first eight months versus 2024. Other quantified risks include Indonesia’s biofuel push (a 50% palm-oil diesel blend could convert 5.3 million hectares of forest by 2042, plus a proposed 20 million-hectare forest conversion) and India’s mixed signal: fossil generation is expected to drop 5% this year, yet coal capacity is planned to rise by nearly 50% by 2035.
