律师与倡议者称，规则未必“纸面改变”，但执法更严：边境官员更依赖书面证据、对家庭豁免等例外的认定更严格，导致被判不符合条件后更可能迅速遣返美国，并面临美国移民执法（含拘押）风险。加拿大边境服务局称未被指示提高门槛，仍以“更可能成立”为家庭关系证明标准并逐案评估。
遣返规模与全国趋势也显示收紧：加拿大在今年前11个月依据《安全第三国协议》将4,035名申请人送回美国，较2024年同期多29%，其中约三分之二通过合法口岸入境；截至11月，该口岸累计申请量约为2024年同期的两倍，但全国总申请量31,977份，同比下降42%，主要来自机场申请“断崖式”下滑（叠加对临时签证更严审查、以及2024年初对墨西哥公民的部分签证要求）。国会推进的C-12法案拟对入境后提出的难民申请设一年期限并加速筛查，引发“更安全/更严”与“更不安全/更违宪”的政策争论。
Asylum flows into Canada via upstate New York have reversed sharply after a summer surge of thousands. At Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle, the busiest land crossing for such claims, applications averaged over 1,900 per month from March–August—an 184% jump from a year earlier. The wave ebbed in November: 518 claims versus 637 the prior year, the first year-over-year drop since February.
Lawyers and advocates say enforcement has tightened even if the written rules have not: officers are demanding more documentary proof and applying Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) exceptions—especially the family exemption—more strictly. Rejections can trigger quick returns to the US, where some migrants may be detained by ICE. The Canada Border Services Agency says agents have not been told to change standards and that each case is assessed individually under a “more likely than not” test for family ties.
Policy and system-wide numbers point to a tougher posture. In the first 11 months of 2025, Canada returned 4,035 claimants to the US under the STCA, 29% more than the same period in 2024; about two-thirds came via legal ports of entry. Through November, total asylum claims processed were 31,977, a 42% decline year over year, driven by a steep drop in airport claims amid tighter temporary-visa screening and a partial visa requirement for Mexican nationals introduced in early 2024. Parliament is advancing Bill C-12, including a one-year post-arrival deadline and faster screening, fueling debate over access versus deterrence.
