以色列选举很少围绕经济展开，2月调查中只有11%的受访者把降低生活成本列为决定投票的首要议题。尽管加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的冲突已持续两年半，经济仍在繁荣：第一季度GDP按年率萎缩3.3%，但特拉维夫证券交易所和谢克尔依然走强，通胀和失业率都很低，部分原因是许多年轻人被征召入伍，且地中海近海天然气出口在支撑增长。

战时下滑后，强劲出口，尤其是科技行业出口，正在拉动复苏，国防科技公司因来自以军和外国军队的合同充足而表现突出。英伟达在以色列已有6,000名员工，并计划再建一个基地增加10,000人；德国去年12月又签下30亿欧元（35亿美元）的Arrow 3后续合同，使其对以色列导弹防御技术的投资几乎翻倍。

不过，经济学家担心这种依赖高端科技、防务出口和少数高技能精英的模式在人口结构上不可持续。极端正统派犹太人和阿拉伯裔以色列人占人口三分之一以上，却在科技行业几乎缺席；科技从业者虽仅占劳动力的10%，却贡献了逾一半的总出口，而目前其男性生活参与率只有54%，学校教育也存在英语、数学和科学缺口。

Israel’s elections rarely focus on the economy, and in a February survey only 11% of respondents said reducing the cost of living was the main issue driving their vote. Despite two and a half years of conflict in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, the economy is still booming: GDP fell 3.3% at an annualised rate in the first quarter, yet the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and the shekel remain strong, while low inflation and unemployment are partly helped by military conscription and offshore natural-gas exports.

Strong exports, especially from tech, are driving recovery after the wartime dip, with defence-technology firms benefiting from orders from both the Israeli army and foreign forces. Nvidia already employs 6,000 people in Israel and plans a new base for 10,000 more, while Germany’s €3bn ($3.5bn) Arrow 3 contract in December nearly doubled its investment in Israeli missile-defence technology.

Economists worry that the model based on high-end technology, defence exports and a small skilled elite is demographically unsustainable. Ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arab-Israelis are more than one-third of the population but are barely represented in tech; tech workers are only 10% of the labour force yet generate over half of exports, while only 54% of men in those religious communities work and their schools often omit English, maths and science.

Source: Israel’s economy is booming

Subtitle: Its endless wars help explain why

Dateline: 5月 21, 2026 03:18 上午 | JERUSALEM