以色列政府在过去两年半里多次被预言垮台，但直到5月20日，议会才以初步投票决定解散自己；若无变数，大选最迟须在10月27日前举行。触发危机的是两大极端正统派党派要求立法豁免神学院学生服兵役，而这一提案对多数以色列人都极不受欢迎。

这个政府几乎撑满四年任期，在以色列已属罕见；自2023年10月哈马斯袭击以来，内塔尼亚胡不仅稳住了右翼和宗教联盟，还拉拢了其他人入阁。尽管如此，以色列在加沙仅控制略高于一半的废墟地带，哈马斯仍掌握其余地区，过去两年对伊朗和黎巴嫩真主党的多次行动也未带来决定性胜利。

战争与政治危机将主导选举：加沙已有7万多人死亡，2024年约8.3万人移民、2025年又近7万人外流。民调显示，内塔尼亚胡现联盟长期难以拿到多数，但反对派同样缺乏统一领导与稳定执政方案，而76岁的内塔尼亚胡这将是他以利库德领导人身份参加的第12次选举。

Israel’s government has been predicted to collapse for two and a half years, but on May 20 the Knesset only took a preliminary step to dissolve itself; unless delayed, parliamentary elections must be held by October 27. The immediate trigger is a demand from two ultra-Orthodox parties to exempt seminary students from compulsory military service, a proposal deeply unpopular with most Israelis.

The government has nearly completed its four-year term, a rare feat in Israel, and since Hamas’s October 2023 attack Netanyahu has held together his hard-right and religious bloc while bringing others into the cabinet. Yet Israel controls just over half of Gaza as wasteland, Hamas still rules the rest, and repeated operations against Iran and Hezbollah over the past two years have brought no decisive outcome.

War and politics will dominate the election: more than 70,000 people have been killed in Gaza, about 83,000 emigrated in 2024, and almost 70,000 followed in 2025. Polls suggest Netanyahu’s current coalition is unlikely to win a majority, but the opposition lacks unity and a clear leader, while the 76-year-old Netanyahu is set to face his 12th election as Likud leader.

Source: Is Binyamin Netanyahu facing his last stand?

Subtitle: The legacy of October 7th and the wars that followed will loom over the campaig

Dateline: 5月 21, 2026 04:59 上午 | JERUSALEM