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文章认为,川普政府采取了对中国的妥协与战略性让步政策,而唐纳德·川普原定于5月访问北京的计划,象征著一种危险的拖延观望做法。文中说,华盛顿押注于后退可以为美国争取时间,重建供应链、扩大工业产能,并在自身更强之前避免对抗,但这种逻辑被描绘为一个历史性错误,因为中国一再把克制解读为软弱,而不是作为互相回应的邀请。

为了支持这一主张,文章列举了几个前例:奥巴马时期未能对南海造岛行为加以遏制、对国家支持的网路窃盗的美国反应低调、川普第一任期在换取第一阶段贸易协议时暂停加征关税,而该协议让中国的采购承诺和结构性改革都未能兑现,以及对 Covid 起源缺乏有力调查。接著文章说,这种新做法已经带来了一些让步,例如减少对台湾的支持、放松技术管制,以及更少的网路调查;同时,北京则以收紧出口管制并扩大赋予其当局对外国公司广泛裁量权的规则作为回应。

文章警告说,地区与战略成本正在上升,因为印太地区与欧洲的盟友在质疑美国是否会捍卫自身利益或支持日本、台湾以及南海声索方等伙伴时,正采取对冲策略。文章还认为,据称被争取来的时间并未被有效利用:伊朗战争消耗了库存、打乱了维护工作并降低了军事备战状态,对盟友加征关税正在损害合作,人才正在流出美国,研发投资也在被削减。核心含义是,北京峰会可能使战略性让步获得正当性,使美国在最终真正选择严肃竞争时,所拥有的杠杆更少、伙伴更少、需要弥补的缺口更大。

The article argues that the Trump administration has adopted a China policy of accommodation and strategic deference, with President Donald Trump’s planned May visit to Beijing symbolizing a dangerous pause-and-wait approach. It says Washington is betting that backing off will buy time for the US to rebuild supply chains, expand industrial capacity, and avoid confrontation until it is stronger, but this logic is portrayed as a historic mistake because China has repeatedly interpreted restraint as weakness rather than as an invitation to reciprocate. (Key numbers: 5)

To support that claim, the piece cites several precedents: the Obama-era failure to confront island-building in the South China Sea, muted US responses to state-sponsored cyber theft, Trump’s first-term tariff pause in exchange for a phase one trade deal that left China’s purchase promises and structural reforms unfulfilled, and the lack of a forceful investigation into Covid’s origins. It then says the new approach is already producing concessions such as reduced support for Taiwan, looser technology controls, and fewer cyber investigations, while Beijing has responded by tightening export controls and expanding rules that give its authorities broad discretion over foreign companies.

The article warns that the regional and strategic costs are mounting because allies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe are hedging as they question whether the US will defend its interests or stand by partners such as Japan, Taiwan, and South China Sea claimants. It also argues that the time supposedly being bought is not being used effectively: the Iran war has drained inventories, disrupted maintenance, and reduced military readiness, tariffs on allies are damaging cooperation, talent is leaving the US, and research and development investment is being cut. The core implication is that a Beijing summit could legitimize strategic deference, leaving the US with less leverage, fewer partners, and larger gaps to close when it finally chooses to compete seriously.

2026-05-04 (Monday) · 132f3c9eb51c2052188fecc335fbada8bf2bc5b6