供给端扰动升温：印尼全球第二大铜矿发生致命事故、刚果民主共和国出现井下淹水、智利矿场发生致命落石爆炸，压缩全球产量；多家矿商也下修产量指引。德意志银行估计，全球最大矿商 2025 年产量将下滑 3%，且 2026 年可能再降。虽然全球库存增加，但大量库存集中在美国仓库、难以流出，迫使其他地区制造商竞价抢料。
需求面仍强劲：电气化趋势推动电网、新能源基建与制造用铜需求，投资人也押注 AI 用电带动消费加速。分析师警告高品位、易开采资源趋于枯竭，市场接近重大缺口；摩根士丹利预估明年需求将较供给多出约 60 万吨，且缺口可能扩大，为逾 20 年来最严重。花旗在多头情境下看 15,000 美元；高盛则提醒涨势更多反映对未来紧俏的押注。其他金属方面，镍价上涨 3%，与印尼拟于 2026 年削减镍矿产量的消息相关。
Copper topped $12,000/ton for the first time. On Tuesday, LME prices hit an intraday high of $12,159.50 (up to +2%) and settled at $12,060.50 (+1.1%). The metal is up more than 35% in 2025, on pace for its biggest annual rise since 2009.
Supply risks intensified after disruptions at major mines: a deadly incident at Indonesia’s second-largest copper mine, an underground flood in the DRC, and a fatal rock blast in Chile. Several miners cut guidance; Deutsche Bank expects the largest miners’ output to fall 3% in 2025 and potentially decline again in 2026. Global stocks have risen, but much of the material is tied up in US warehouses, tightening availability elsewhere.
Demand remains supported by electrification (grids, energy infrastructure, manufacturing) and expectations that AI-driven power needs will lift consumption. Analysts warn easy, high-grade resources are being exhausted and the market is nearing a major deficit; Morgan Stanley projects demand will exceed supply by about 600,000 tons next year, the most severe shortfall in over 20 years, worsening thereafter. Citi sees $15,000 in a bull case, while Goldman cautions the rally reflects bets on future tightness. Nickel rose 3% after Indonesia floated 2026 ore cuts.
