结构上，消费支出年率增3.5%（前季2.5%），企业投资增2.8%（前季7.3%），住宅投资连两季-5.1%。净出口对GDP贡献约+1.6个百分点；较能反映内需的「私人国内购买者最终销售」增3.0%，为一年来最高。衡量所得面的GDI增2.4%（前季2.6%）。
通膨仍偏高：核心PCE（扣除食物与能源）第三季升2.9%，高于联准会2%目标；年增率GDP约2.3%。联准会预测2026年仅一次降息（今年底已连续三次降息），而12月消费者信心连5个月下滑、为2008年以来最长跌势。企业获利第三季增4.2%；BEA第三季最终估计预定1月22日公布，第四季与2025全年初估时程仍未定。
US real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in Q3 2025 (up from 3.8% in Q2), the fastest pace in two years. The release was delayed by a government shutdown, and only two estimates will be published for the quarter instead of the usual three.
The growth mix stayed demand-led: consumer spending rose 3.5% (vs 2.5%), business investment rose 2.8% (vs 7.3%), and residential investment fell 5.1% for a second straight quarter. Net exports added about 1.6 percentage points to GDP, while final sales to private domestic purchasers climbed 3.0%, the strongest in a year; GDI increased 2.4% (vs 2.6%).
Inflation remained above target, with core PCE up 2.9% in Q3 versus the Fed’s 2% goal, even as year-over-year growth was a milder 2.3%. The Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 after three cuts to end 2025; consumer confidence fell for a fifth month in December (longest since 2008), and corporate profits rose 4.2%. The next (final) Q3 GDP estimate is due Jan. 22, while initial Q4 and full-year 2025 timing is still unsettled.
