英国移民从“鲍里斯浪潮”的高峰迅速逆转：截至2023年3月的一年，入境者近150万，净移民为944,000人；去年净移民降至171,000人，为剔除疫情年份后2012年以来最低。经济移民仍在快速下降，1月至3月技术工人签证申请仅5,900份，而两年前为19,100份，降幅约69%；学生签证也在减少，2026年净移民甚至可能转负。
收紧措施覆盖工资、家庭、学习和雇主渠道：2021年脱欧后欧盟自由流动结束，2019至2022年印度人的工作和学习签证增加两倍，尼日利亚人增加十倍，但2024和2025年工资门槛上调，配偶收入要求跃升55%，公司用工费用提高三分之一至每年1,320英镑，毕业后工作期将从两年缩短到18个月。约124,000家雇主持有海外技术工人担保牌照，过去一年4,369张被吊销，超过此前八年总和；护理签证暴跌，IT专业人员签证从2022年约28,000份降至去年的10,000份，降幅约64%。
数据削弱了“低技能、低工资”叙事：印度出生雇员年均收入32,400英镑，尼日利亚出生雇员34,000英镑，均高于英国出生者的30,900英镑，且成年移民就业可能性略高于本土成年人。拟议的永居改革会把标准等待期从五年延至十年，低收入者更久；但研究显示入籍使男性就业率提高12%、女性提高13%，因此更长的法律不确定期可能压低生产率，同时在移民工人减少、庇护申请者稳定约每年100,000人的情况下改变移民构成。
Britain’s migration pattern has reversed sharply from the peak of the “Boriswave”: in the year to March 2023, almost 1.5 million people arrived and net migration reached 944,000; last year net migration fell to 171,000, the lowest since 2012 excluding the pandemic years. Economic migration is still falling fast, with skilled-worker visa applications at just 5,900 in January-March versus 19,100 two years earlier, a drop of about 69%; student visas are also declining, and net migration may even turn negative in 2026.
The tightening spans pay, family, study and employer channels: after EU free movement ended in 2021, Indian work and study visas tripled and Nigerian ones rose tenfold from 2019 to 2022, but salary thresholds rose in 2024 and 2025, the spouse income requirement jumped 55%, company hiring fees rose by one-third to £1,320 per year, and the post-study work period will be cut from two years to 18 months. About 124,000 employers hold sponsor licences for overseas skilled workers, and 4,369 were revoked in the past year, more than in the previous eight years combined; care visas have plunged, while IT-professional visas fell from about 28,000 in 2022 to 10,000 last year, about a 64% drop.
The data weaken the “low-skilled, low-paid” narrative: India-born employees average £32,400 a year and Nigeria-born employees £34,000, both above the £30,900 average for British-born workers, while adult migrants are slightly more likely to work than native adults. Proposed settlement reforms would extend the standard wait for permanent residence from five to ten years, and longer for low earners; yet research finds naturalisation raises employment by 12% for men and 13% for women, so longer legal limbo may reduce productivity while shifting the migrant mix as worker numbers fall and asylum claims stay near 100,000 a year.
Source: Britain has crushed immigration, and harmed itself
Subtitle: Nobody seems to have noticed
Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 03:25 上午 | WARWICK