尽管英国移民总量在过去两年下降了44%，移民仍是选民最关注的议题：Ipsos 5月调查中，41%的成年人将其列为英国最重要问题，比“经济”高7个百分点。More In Common也显示，虽然“生活成本”居首，但对移民的担忧一年内上升5个百分点；British Future自2015年以来的追踪显示，仅15%的英国人满意政府处理移民的方式，且该比例从未超过20%。

公众对规模和构成的认知明显偏离数据：40%的英国人希望移民人数“大幅减少”，15%希望“小幅减少”，但只有六分之一成年人知道去年移民人数下降，约一半认为上升。受访者平均估计寻求庇护者占去年移民的33%，实际约为12%；想到“移民”时，只有29%选择留学生、38%选择工作移民，而62%想到小船入境者、59%想到寻求庇护者。

小船议题强化了“失控”印象：今年前145天横渡英吉利海峡人数同比下降37%，但当前12个月总数仍比工党2024年7月上台时高15%，且64%不满移民制度者认为政府阻止越境“不够努力”。过去四年，称对小船移民“完全不同情”的比例从18%升至28%，认为移民削弱英国文化者从约八分之一升至近三分之一，在Reform UK选民中接近三分之二；不过，多数英国人仍支持“受控”移民，并相对欢迎更多医生、护士、工程师和采果工。

Although UK immigration has fallen by 44% over the past two years, it remains voters’ leading concern: in Ipsos’s May poll, 41% of adults named it Britain’s most important issue, seven points above “the economy”. More In Common also finds “cost of living” first, but immigration concern has risen five points in a year; British Future’s tracker since 2015 shows only 15% are satisfied with the government’s handling of immigration, and the figure has never exceeded 20%.

Public perceptions of scale and composition diverge sharply from the data: 40% of Britons want immigrant numbers “reduced a lot” and 15% “reduced a little”, yet only one in six adults know immigration fell last year, while about half think it rose. Respondents on average estimate asylum-seekers made up 33% of immigrants last year, versus about 12% in reality; when thinking of “immigrants”, only 29% select students and 38% workers, while 62% cite small-boat arrivals and 59% asylum-seekers.

Small boats reinforce the impression of lost control: crossings in the first 145 days of this year were down 37% year on year, but the current 12-month total is still 15% higher than when Labour took office in July 2024, and 64% of those dissatisfied with the system say the government is not doing enough to stop crossings. Over four years, the share with “no sympathy at all” for small-boat migrants rose from 18% to 28%, and those saying migrants undermine British culture increased from about one in eight to almost one in three, nearly two-thirds among Reform UK voters; nevertheless, most Britons still support migration if it is “under control” and are relatively welcoming toward more doctors, nurses, engineers, and fruit-pickers.

Source: Immigration remains at the forefront of British voters’ minds

Subtitle: The focus has shifted to asylum and small boats

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 05:19 上午