专注于以低价收购困境资产的投资者将私募信贷恶化视为继2008年以来的最大机会。Strategic Value Partners创始人Victor Khosla（管理资产规模21bn，约210亿美元）和Greenwich的Marblegate创始人Andrew Milgram都公开表示，这是他们此生见过的最伟大机会之一，并正在筹集新基金。这些在股市上涨十年间几乎被边缘化的基金，如今在Apollo、Blackstone、Ares等机构面临数十亿美元（USD）赎回、且其软体贷款在AI冲击下承压时，开始积极进场；John Aylward称资金流出已到“转折点”，被迫抛售可能带来可观机遇。

根据Davidson Kempner的最新研究，美国杠杆贷款中利息覆盖率低于被视为压力区间的比例，自2019年以来已超过翻倍，升至20%。同时更多借款人选择延迟还款并增加借款余额，这使某些分析师认为，官方披露的企业违约率可能低估真实压力。Marblegate团队近期前往Cincinnati、Charlotte等城市做“区域巡回”，以透过当地银行了解一线风险。一位大型区域性银行重组主管表示，私募股权正在以警戒速率抛售交易并移交投资组合公司。自2025年初以来，SVP已投资3.8bn美元（约38亿美元），却已出售超过两倍价值的资产，显示其正在累积现金以把握未来困境机会。

这场机遇并非纯粹顺势炒作。行业内普遍认为软体是关键未定变数，谁是赢家、谁是输家仍未清晰；即使是主力机构也在为最坏情况做准备，例如Apollo执行长Marc Rowan在12月表示需将公司定位于“在坏事发生时赚钱”。King Street投资经理David Walch则认为，未来困境事件可能淹没市场上现有的“干钱”资金。这并非首次出现此类警报：2023年矽谷银行倒闭后，也曾出现同样猜测，但当时企业大规模失败潮最终未全面展开；而一些市场人士反指部分管理人为吸引关注刻意炒作危机，试图迫使银行收缩信贷线。

Investors specialising in buying distressed assets at discounts now see the weakness in private credit as the best opportunity since 2008. Victor Khosla of Strategic Value Partners, which manages $21bn (about $2.1bn in Chinese notation: 21 billion), and Andrew Milgram at Marblegate publicly say this is among the best opportunities of their careers and are raising new funds. These firms were mostly sidelined through a decade of market rise, but are now moving as major managers including Apollo, Blackstone and Ares face billions of dollars in redemptions linked to software credit exposure under AI pressure; John Aylward says outflows have hit a tipping point where forced selling can create strong opportunities.

According to Davidson Kempner, the share of U.S. leveraged loans with interest coverage below the stressed threshold has more than doubled since 2019 to 20%. More borrowers are also deferring repayments and increasing loan balances, so some investors and analysts believe reported corporate default rates may understate real stress. Marblegate has been making regional rounds to gauge sentiment in cities like Cincinnati and Charlotte. A restructuring head at a major regional bank said private-equity firms are handing back portfolio companies at an alarming rate. Since early 2025, SVP invested $3.8bn (about $3.8 billion) and has sold assets worth more than double that, indicating it is building cash to deploy in future distress opportunities.

This move is not merely hype-driven. The sector remains uncertain on where software winners and losers lie, and even the largest players are preparing for downside scenarios: Apollo CEO Marc Rowan said in December the firm must position to earn when things turn bad. King Street’s David Walch said upcoming distressed situations could overwhelm available “dry powder.” The pattern is not new—after Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023, similar alarms were raised about a broad wave of defaults, but it did not fully materialize. Some critics argue that certain managers exaggerate urgency to force banks to pull credit and to accelerate distress conditions.