美联储新任主席Kevin Warsh将自己定位为20世纪90年代美联储主席Alan Greenspan的继承者，后者在技术驱动的生产力繁荣时期，通过将现实中的奇闻轶事置于正式经济模型之上，著名地保持了利率稳定。Warsh先生认为，人工智能将扩大供应并降低成本，成为推动降低利率的去通胀力量。然而，在短期内，人工智能对利率的影响是供给与需求之间的竞争，而目前需求正在取胜。在数据中心、芯片和发电厂的大量债务驱动投资，结合股市的繁荣，正在刺激消费支出，并可能需要更高的利率来防止经济过热。

即使人工智能成功提高了生产力，降低了单位成本并扩大了经济容量，这种供给侧的转变也可能不会像Warsh先生预期的那样导致更低的利率。更高的生产力会提高实际收入，产生新的需求并提高“中性利率”（简称r-star）——即货币政策既不加热也不冷却经济的实际利率。Lukasz Rachel的一项研究表明，人工智能可能会将中性利率提高约一个百分点，因为家庭会针对更高的预期未来收入进行借贷，而企业也会增加投资，这使得重返大流行前超低利率时代变得不太可能。

尽管某些因素可能会降低中性利率，例如广泛的就业流失或企业竞争缩减利润并创造储蓄过剩，但其总体影响仍极具不确定性。这种复杂性表明，Warsh先生在处理人工智能与利率之间的关系时应当保持谨慎。此外，历史表明，Greenspan先生最终对90年代生产力繁荣释放的需求感到担忧，警告资产价格出现“非理性繁荣”，并在1999年至2000年间加息六次以对抗通胀。Warsh先生必须吸取这一教训，以避免落后于经济发展的步伐。

Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chairman, has positioned himself as the successor to Alan Greenspan, the 1990s Fed chairman who famously held interest rates steady during a technology-driven productivity boom by prioritizing real-world anecdotes over formal economic models. Mr. Warsh argues that artificial intelligence will expand supply and lower costs, acting as a disinflationary force that calls for lower interest rates. However, in the near term, the effect of AI on rates is a competition between supply and demand, and currently, demand is winning. Massive debt-fueled investments in data centers, chips, and power plants, combined with a stock market boom, are boosting consumer spending and potentially requiring higher rates to prevent overheating.

Even if AI successfully boosts productivity, cutting unit costs and expanding economic capacity, this supply-side shift may not lead to lower interest rates as Mr. Warsh anticipates. Higher productivity increases real incomes, generating new demand and raising the "neutral rate" of interest (r-star)—the rate at which monetary policy is neutral. A study by Lukasz Rachel suggests that AI could increase r-star by approximately one percentage point, as households borrow against higher expected future incomes and businesses increase investment, making a return to pre-pandemic ultra-low interest rates unlikely.

While some factors could lower the neutral rate, such as widespread job displacement or corporate competition reducing profits and creating a savings glut, the overall impact remains highly uncertain. This complexity suggests that Mr. Warsh should approach the relationship between AI and interest rates with caution. Furthermore, history shows that Mr. Greenspan eventually feared the demand unleashed by the 1990s productivity boom, warning of "irrational exuberance" and raising rates six times between 1999 and 2000 to combat inflation. Mr. Warsh must heed this warning to avoid falling behind the economic curve.

Source: Will AI lower interest rates?

Subtitle: Kevin Warsh is drawing lessons about tech from Alan Greenspan—but selectively

Dateline: 6月 25, 2026 04:19 上午