6月22日，美国财政部发布了一项为期60天的制裁豁免，允许伊朗石油的生产、销售和交付，扭转了自1980年禁运以来美国长达四十年的政策。与以往仅取消次级制裁或仅涵盖已装船石油的临时缓解措施不同，该许可允许美国炼油厂直接购买伊朗石油，用美元进行结算，并使用被列入黑名单的油轮。这一让步旨在维持外交谈判并确保霍尔木兹海峡保持开放，但其对全球石油市场的直接影响微乎其微。
尽管在美方于6月中旬解除对伊朗港口的封锁后，伊朗石油出口量从5月的接近于零增至每日150万桶，但这仍低于战前每日200万桶的月度平均水平。出口进一步增长的主要障碍是买家缺乏多样化。目前，几乎所有伊朗石油都流向了中国东北部的小型民营炼油厂，由于伊朗原油现在的价格与阿曼和阿联酋石油持平，这些炼油厂增加购买的动力有限。此外，由于短暂的60天窗口期、持续的欧洲和英国制裁以及声誉风险，国际买家对与伊朗做生意仍持迟疑态度。
该豁免也未能确保霍尔木兹海峡的安全通行，因为伊朗在6月17日签署初步协议几天后便宣布该海峡再次关闭，并宣布计划管理该水道并设立协调热线。尽管如此，该豁免对德黑兰来说是一项重大福利，减少了物流摩擦并使停产的石油生产得以重启。如果该许可无限期延长，再加上潜在的过境费和解冻资产的收回，伊朗可能会在不做出核让步的情况下实现实质性的经济增长。
On June 22nd, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 60-day sanctions waiver allowing the production, sale, and delivery of Iranian petroleum, reversing four decades of American policy dating back to the 1980 embargo. Unlike previous temporary reliefs that only lifted secondary sanctions or covered oil already loaded on ships, this license allows American refiners to buy Iranian oil directly, settle payments in U.S. dollars, and use blacklisted tankers. This concession is aimed at keeping diplomatic talks alive and ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but its immediate impact on global oil markets has been marginal.
While Iranian oil exports rose from nearly zero in May to 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in mid-June after America lifted its port blockade, this remains below the pre-war monthly average of 2 million b/d. A primary obstacle to further export growth is the lack of buyer diversification. Currently, nearly all Iranian oil goes to small private refineries in China, which have limited incentives to increase purchases now that Iranian crude is priced on a par with Omani and Emirati oil. Furthermore, international buyers remain hesitant to deal with Iran due to the brief 60-day window, ongoing European and British sanctions, and reputational risks.
The waiver has also failed to guarantee secure transit through the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran briefly declared the waterway closed days after signing the preliminary agreement on June 17th and announced plans to administer the waterway and establish a coordination hotline. Nonetheless, the waiver serves as a significant boon for Tehran, reducing logistical friction and enabling the restart of halted oil production. If the license is renewed indefinitely, coupled with potential transit fees and the recovery of unfrozen assets, Iran could experience substantial economic growth without offering nuclear concessions.
Source: Waiving sanctions on Iranian oil is a huge concession by America
Subtitle: It will enrich an adversary
Dateline: 6月 25, 2026 03:28 上午