【徐瑾】7月17日的抛售具有全球性：沪指跌破3,800点，约5,000只A股下跌；纳斯达克当周下跌近3%，日经指数单日下跌逾4%，费城半导体指数一周接近下跌10%，并较6月高点回落20%。韩国展示了相同的高预期逆转：股市上半年上涨逾100%，但尽管Samsung Electronics第二季度营业利润同比增长19倍、营收翻倍至171万亿韩元，其股价仍下跌约8%，KOSPI下跌6%。这些数字表明，良好盈利无法支撑已经计入极端乐观预期的估值。

中国的宏观背景仍然疲弱。第二季度GDP同比增长4.3%，较第一季度的5.0%下降0.7个百分点；为了实现全年4.5%的目标，下半年增长必须改善。上半年进出口增长16.9%，但固定资产投资下降5.7%，社会消费品零售总额增速降至1.3%，房地产开发投资下降18.0%。相较之下，科技政策仍具扩张性：人工智能核心产业在2025年超过1.2万亿元，2026年人形机器人产量预计突破10万台。6月末，M2达到356.71万亿元，同比增长8%，M1达到118.48万亿元，同比增长4%，显示庞大但谨慎的流动性仍可能转向股票。

文章认为此次下跌更像高估值、集中持仓与踩踏效应造成的修正，而非科技趋势的确定终结。当前杠杆风险低于2015年，当时融资融券余额最高达到2.27万亿元，沪指曾升至5,178点。Berkshire Hathaway持有近4,000亿美元短期国债，说明现金和耐心本身具有战略价值。核心区分不是人工智能与非人工智能，而是拥有持续利润、自由现金流和自筹资本支出能力的龙头企业，与依赖融资、缺乏盈利的小型投机公司之间的区别。长期产业机会可以持续，但回报仍取决于买入价格、仓位规模和亏损控制。

The July 17 selloff was global: the Shanghai Composite fell below 3,800, about 5,000 A-shares declined, the Nasdaq lost nearly 3% for the week, the Nikkei dropped over 4% in one day, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell almost 10% weekly and 20% from its June peak. Korea showed the same reversal of elevated expectations: its market had risen over 100% in the first half, yet Samsung Electronics fell about 8% and the KOSPI 6% despite second-quarter operating profit rising nineteenfold and revenue doubling to KRW171 trillion. These figures suggest strong earnings cannot sustain valuations already pricing extreme optimism.

China’s macroeconomic background remains weak. Second-quarter GDP grew 4.3% year on year, down 0.7 percentage points from 5.0% in the first quarter; achieving the 4.5% annual target therefore requires stronger second-half growth. First-half trade rose 16.9%, but fixed-asset investment fell 5.7%, retail-sales growth slowed to 1.3%, and property-development investment declined 18.0%. By contrast, technology policy remains expansionary: the core AI industry exceeded RMB1.2 trillion in 2025, while 2026 humanoid-robot output may surpass 100,000 units. At June-end, M2 reached RMB356.71 trillion, up 8%, and M1 RMB118.48 trillion, up 4%, indicating large but cautious liquidity that may still enter equities.

The article interprets the decline as a correction driven by high valuations, concentrated positioning, and crowd liquidation rather than a definitive end to the technology trend. Leverage risks are lower than in 2015, when margin financing peaked at RMB2.27 trillion and the Shanghai Composite reached 5,178. Berkshire Hathaway’s nearly US$400 billion in short-term Treasuries illustrates the strategic value of cash and patience. The essential distinction is not AI versus non-AI, but profitable leaders with free cash flow and self-funded investment versus small, financing-dependent speculative companies. Long-term industrial opportunity may persist, but returns still depend on purchase price, position size, and loss control.